Primary bond market

As Erie County sells general obligation bonds to fund its new stadium for the Buffalo Bills, the deal team is targeting a new market: fans of the NFL team. 

"Should September's positive returns hold as we expect, it would mark the fourth consecutive month of positive total returns — the first such period since the five-month period spanning from March through July 2021," BofA strategists Yingchen Li and Ian Rogow said.

While the municipal market barely budged following the Fed's decision to cut rates 50 basis points, Thursday saw muni yields rise up to two basis points, depending on the scale, but still lagged the weakness in USTs. LSEG Lipper reported $716 million of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds.

The record pace of municipal bond supply this year is driven in part by cities and states realizing projects won't get any cheaper if they wait.

The ratio of local government municipal debt to GDP in aggregate has fallen to around 10% from 20% in 2010.

For municipals, Wednesday "marks a crucial step forward, perfectly aligned with the current risk landscape," said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer for 16Rock Asset Management.

Fed rate cuts "should lead to positive price action for both taxable and tax-exempt bonds, and current nominal yields remain well above where they were when the Fed was more dovish, implying generous room to rally from here," said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics, Inc.

"Given increasing student demand for charter schools, we anticipate continued strong supply issued into the municipal market," according to Nuveen.

Despite the underperformance to USTs, munis saw positive momentum during the first two weeks of September with the asset class returning 0.68% so far this month and 1.99% year-to-date.

While supply falls next week as investors await their first Fed rate cut in four years, it should pick up after the FOMC, Barclays PLC said, adding the 30-day visible pipeline "is at relatively manageable levels at the moment." Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply is at $10.09 billion.