Primary bond market

The slowdown of growth in the fourth quarter does not imply there is dwindling demand for munis, said Pat Luby, head of municipal strategy at CreditSights.

"While there has been some reported buying by relative value institutions amid higher ratios from the muni-centric price correction, the market as a whole may not rally this week," said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

Hospital and health insurance operator UPMC's $735 million deal looks routine. But the volatile healthcare and insurance environments may disrupt that standard.

Municipals are little changed to start the week after last week's selloff, which saw muni yields cut up to 20 basis points out long.

Gov. Josh Stein said in his State of the State address too many schools are overcrowded or decrepit.

March had been expected to be difficult due to a "combination of heavy supply, low redemptions, rate volatility, tax-related selling and now fund outflows," said Barclays strategists Mikhail Foux and Grace Cen.

A $150 million housing bonds with a taxable component is anticipated for May and $110 million higher education student loan bonds are also anticipated for that month.

After digit-double cuts out long Wednesday, muni yields rose an additional two to four basis points, depending on the curve, on Thursday.

"The supply/demand dynamic is a headwind for the muni market this week as supply is expected to be elevated," said Cooper Howard, a fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab.

"The ever-shifting narrative regarding President Trump's tariff policies is throwing fuel on the fire of unpredictability," said SWBC's Chris Brigati.

The market rally "took a bit of a breather last week, with yields rising across the curve," said Daryl Clements, a portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein.

"March is not an overly positive month for munis, but a lot will depend on U.S. Treasuries," said Barclays strategist Mikhail Foux.

"Markets fixate on one risk at a time, and there's no shortage right now. Volatility has spiked, liquidity is thin, and buyers are sidelined — but that's temporary," said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer at 16Rock Asset Management.

Ordinances pending before the city council would authorize up to $325 million of interim financing that would be refunded with fixed-rate, 30-year bonds.

Issuance remains heavy this week, but while it's elevated, the muni market is "structurally undersupplied," meaning if 2024's record level of $500 billion-plus of issuance was doubled, the market could still digest it quite well, said Wesly Pate, a senior portfolio manager at Income Research + Management.

The Texas city, which is considering an $800 million general obligation bond election next year, expects to issue nearly $400 million of debt in 2025.

Illinois will sell $725 million of junior sales tax revenue bonds in a competitive deal pricing Tuesday. The Build Illinois bonds will fund capital projects.

Short-end U.S. Treasuries rallied mid-morning, while UST yields were little changed out long, but ended the day weaker across most of the curve with the greatest losses out long. Munis were steady throughout the day.

The New York City Transitional Finance Authority plans to make an impact on the municipal market this month with $1.8 billion of bond sales.

S&P Global Ratings primarily cited a "precipitous decline" in unrestricted cash to explain its triple-notch downgrade of the system.