Mutual funds

Munis "continued their slide" last week as yields rose an average of 23 basis points across the curve as the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the Fed will take a "more cautious approach" on interest rate cuts next year, said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

The face amount of munis outstanding rose to $4.171 trillion, a 0.8% increase from Q2 2024 and 2.9% from Q3 2023, according to the latest Fed data.

Muni mutual funds saw outflows after 23 weeks of inflows as LSEG Lipper reported investors pulled $316.2 million for the week ending Dec. 11. High-yield municipal bond funds, though, saw inflows of $192.3 million.

Municipal investors are more focused on the final new-issues coming down the pike and repositioning books as 2024 heads to a close. ICI reported another week of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds.

Investors will be greeted with a diverse new-issue slate the week of Dec. 9, led by bellwether names. If all the deals price, 2024's total should break 2020's record by the end of the week. Despite rich valuations, demand has remained strong as the year winds down.

High-yield municipal bond funds saw inflows of $534.1 million compared to $300.6 million compared the previous week, per LSEG Lipper data.

Technicals could "break down" if there is a potential decline in risk assets or rising unemployment, particularly in white-collar jobs, said Jeff Timlin, a managing partner at Sage Advisory.

With an estimated $13 billion calendar on tap, demand for paper will be bolstered by the $16 billion of redemptions coming Monday while mutual fund inflows, this week at about $560 million and concentrated in the long-end, signal solid investor support. Munis are returning 1.73% in November as of Friday.

High-yield funds saw $608.9 million of inflows compared with inflows of $150.3 million the week prior.

Municipals are outperforming USTs to a large degree this month, with investment grade munis seeing positive 0.81% returns in November and 1.63% year-to-date. USTs are in the red at -0.40% in November with only 0.96% positive returns in 2024.