Monetary policy

The producer price index grew 0.1% in August, while the core rate — which excludes food and energy — rose 0.3% in the month, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

President Donald Trump urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to a level typically reserved for recessions or periods of persistently weak growth, suggesting that such a setting could allow the government to restructure Treasury debt at a lower cost.

GDP will grow 0.9% in the fourth quarter and 1.2% in the first quarter of 2020 before rebounding, economists at BNP Paribas predict.

Fed still divided, but 25 basis point cut is a good bet.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the most likely outlook for the U.S. and world economy is continued moderate growth, but the central bank was monitoring “significant risks.”

The employment report suggests the economy is slowing, though not to the point of recession.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York sees a nearly 38% chance of recession by August 2020, up from 31.5% in the July reading.

With the markets expecting rate cuts to continue, the Federal Reserve won't commit to further action before meeting later this month.

Three Federal Reserve Bank presidents said they would cautiously consider supporting a rate cut.

Some analysts wonder if lower rates will matter in an escalating trade war.

A former top Federal Reserve official suggested the central bank reject interest-rate cuts that would help Donald Trump’s 2020 reelection prospects, drawing swift criticism that such forbearance would jeopardize the independence of a Fed already under fierce attack from the president.

Despite trade issues, consumer confidence slipped only slightly in August, as “consumers have remained confident and willing to spend.”

While some Federal Reserve Bank presidents offered hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, the markets still expect a 25 basis point cut, and analysts agree.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell again pledged the central bank “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion,” despite “no recent precedents to guide” policy decisions.

Two dissents on the vote to cut rates were the first of Chairman Jerome Powell's term.

“A couple” of Federal Open Market Committee members wanted a 50 basis point rate cut at its July 30-31 meeting, according to minutes released Wednesday, while “several” would have preferred no action.

The U.S. economy doesn’t appear to be headed toward a recession, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said.

Every coin has two sides and that is the case with a possible September rate cut.

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren continued to push back against further interest-rate cuts by the central bank.

By the end of the week the municipal bond market should have a better idea of what Federal Reserve officials are thinking.