Monetary policy

The producer price index grew 0.1% in August, while the core rate — which excludes food and energy — rose 0.3% in the month, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

President Donald Trump urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to a level typically reserved for recessions or periods of persistently weak growth, suggesting that such a setting could allow the government to restructure Treasury debt at a lower cost.

GDP will grow 0.9% in the fourth quarter and 1.2% in the first quarter of 2020 before rebounding, economists at BNP Paribas predict.

Fed still divided, but 25 basis point cut is a good bet.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the most likely outlook for the U.S. and world economy is continued moderate growth, but the central bank was monitoring “significant risks.”

The employment report suggests the economy is slowing, though not to the point of recession.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York sees a nearly 38% chance of recession by August 2020, up from 31.5% in the July reading.

With the markets expecting rate cuts to continue, the Federal Reserve won't commit to further action before meeting later this month.

Three Federal Reserve Bank presidents said they would cautiously consider supporting a rate cut.

Some analysts wonder if lower rates will matter in an escalating trade war.