Monetary policy

Economists expect the FOMC to hold rates, although some say there's a case to be made for a July cut, with Fed Chair Powell setting the table for September.

The Federal Reserve chairman has two years left in his term, which he will serve regardless of who occupies the White House. Powell's term on the Fed Board of Governors expires in 2028.

The Fed chief said "more good data" is needed before interest rate targets are lowered.

The Philadelphia Fed president said there can be as few as no cuts or as many as two this year, but if his projections are accurate, one decrease would be appropriate this year.

"We need to see more evidence to convince us that inflation is well on our way back down to 2%," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said.

"I think the risks to inflation are still on the upside," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said. "I think the risk to the labor market is dual-sided."

With no change in rates expected, analysts are interested in the dot plot and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.

"The Fed is going to have to pivot — not on the basis of inflation numbers, but the basis of the real economy," Mohamed El-Erian said.

New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed "will cut rates eventually" during a fireside chat at Milken Institute's Global conference on Monday.

"The Fed is certainly not going to be overly concerned about the growth backdrop" at this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, said BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter.

Recent economic data have shown inflation stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, putting rate cuts in jeopardy. Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist with ITR Economics, parses the FOMC meeting, Chair Powell's press conference and takes a look at future policy.

The minutes underscored officials' reluctance to lower rates until they have more evidence inflation is firmly on a path to 2%, the rate they see as the sweet spot in a healthy economy.

The ISM report "feeds into the narrative coming out of last week," whereby the economy's resilience enables the Fed "to be patient," said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities. For the bond market, that means rates stay "higher for longer."

D.A. Davidson Director of Wealth Management Research James Ragan will review and analyze the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

"The risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance," Cook said.

Analysts ponder what the Fed will do this year with a March cut ruled out amid recent reports of higher-than-expected inflation.

The prospect of three consecutive negative total return years and a GAO ruling giving congress the power to review the DoT's multimodal discretionary grant funding opportunity are two of the recent developments coming out of Washington, D.C.

The Federal Reserve expects to cut interest rates three times this year, some say as early as March, if data alllow those moves. Following the Jan. 30-31 FOMC meeting, Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, will provide his take on the meeting and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.

The discussion of rate cuts, both timing and amount, has analysts offering varying estimates.

"I believe policy is set properly," Waller said. "It is restrictive and should continue to put downward pressure on demand to allow us to continue to see moderate inflation readings."