Monetary policy

Recent economic data have shown inflation stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, putting rate cuts in jeopardy. Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist with ITR Economics, parses the FOMC meeting, Chair Powell's press conference and takes a look at future policy.

The minutes underscored officials' reluctance to lower rates until they have more evidence inflation is firmly on a path to 2%, the rate they see as the sweet spot in a healthy economy.

The ISM report "feeds into the narrative coming out of last week," whereby the economy's resilience enables the Fed "to be patient," said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities. For the bond market, that means rates stay "higher for longer."

D.A. Davidson Director of Wealth Management Research James Ragan will review and analyze the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

"The risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance," Cook said.

Analysts ponder what the Fed will do this year with a March cut ruled out amid recent reports of higher-than-expected inflation.

The prospect of three consecutive negative total return years and a GAO ruling giving congress the power to review the DoT's multimodal discretionary grant funding opportunity are two of the recent developments coming out of Washington, D.C.

The Federal Reserve expects to cut interest rates three times this year, some say as early as March, if data alllow those moves. Following the Jan. 30-31 FOMC meeting, Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, will provide his take on the meeting and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference.

The discussion of rate cuts, both timing and amount, has analysts offering varying estimates.

"I believe policy is set properly," Waller said. "It is restrictive and should continue to put downward pressure on demand to allow us to continue to see moderate inflation readings."

John Williams, who also serves as vice chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, does not expect the Federal Reserve to slow its balance sheet runoff anytime soon.

Musalem, an economist, is a former executive vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

"A soft landing is increasingly conceivable but in no way inevitable," Barkin, who will vote on policy decisions this year, said in the text of a speech Wednesday.

"It's important that we start to move rates down," Harker said Wednesday in a local radio interview. "We don't have to do it too fast, and we're not going to do it right away."

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Dec. 12 and 13 and in addition to their statement, they will issue a Summary of Economic Projections.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said it's too early for officials to begin thinking about cutting rates as soon as March as they consider whether policy is restrictive enough to get inflation back to 2%.

The Federal Open Market Committee's Summary of Economic Projections probably won't offer the 130 basis points of cuts next year that the market expects.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve and monetary policy. Join us as Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist and managing director at BMO Economics, breaks down the latest FOMC meeting.

This could be the first time the bond market has posted three consecutive negative total return years, according to John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist Matt Miskin.

"That is not how you drive policy and it's certainly not how you drive policy when the impact of policy happens with a lag," Mohamed El-Erian said. "This is the first Fed I know that has not gotten it."