Economic indicators

Retail sales showed consumers continue to propel the economy, though the number excluding autos was weaker than forecast.

The producer price index grew 0.1% in August, while the core rate — which excludes food and energy — rose 0.3% in the month, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve’s pre-meeting blackout period started, and although we won’t hear from Fed officials this week, several economic indicators are slated, including inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday and reads of the consumer sector on Friday.

The employment report suggests the economy is slowing, though not to the point of recession.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York sees a nearly 38% chance of recession by August 2020, up from 31.5% in the July reading.

IHS Markit reported its PMI slipped in August as the ISM manufacturing index declined.

Consumers are still fueling economic expansion, with personal consumption gaining 0.6% in July after a 0.3% rise in June.

Three Federal Reserve Bank presidents said they would cautiously consider supporting a rate cut.

Despite trade issues, consumer confidence slipped only slightly in August, as “consumers have remained confident and willing to spend.”

While some Federal Reserve Bank presidents offered hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, the markets still expect a 25 basis point cut, and analysts agree.