Buy side

"Munis are grappling with a storm of uncertainty," said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer at 16Rock Asset Management.

It's hard enough convincing local governments to spend money on cyber insurance that covers ransomware attacks, said Omid Rahmani, public finance cybersecurity lead at Fitch Ratings. The new and very specific threat of a hacked financing process, is "absolutely" underappreciated by the public finance industry.

As the market prepares for 2025, there's a lot of uncertainty around what the new administration will mean for the macroeconomic environment and interest rates, the latter of which may be impacted by policy around the deficit, said Steve Shutz, portfolio manager and director of tax-exempt fixed income at Brown Advisory.

Despite the approval, hurdles remain, including the team's request for more money from the government, which they say delayed approval of the bonds, leading to additional construction costs.

With investors now anticipating Wednesday's expected rate cut may be the last one for a while, "an overall bullish paradigm has been seriously weakened," noted Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics, Inc.

Supply falls ahead of the final Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2024 and the holidays but issuance still breaks records. The lighter calendar should provide support for the secondary market in the final weeks of the year.

The face amount of munis outstanding rose to $4.171 trillion, a 0.8% increase from Q2 2024 and 2.9% from Q3 2023, according to the latest Fed data.

Something less than $400 million of the bonds will be taxable bonds.

Muni mutual funds saw outflows after 23 weeks of inflows as LSEG Lipper reported investors pulled $316.2 million for the week ending Dec. 11. High-yield municipal bond funds, though, saw inflows of $192.3 million.

Most on the Street expect issuance to come in around $500 billion, but a few think volume will be much higher, primarily because of potential changes to the tax exemption. Most firms expect refunding volumes to also grow in 2025.