Bond volume

April's volume was $41.178 billion in 660 issues, down 8.4% from $44.945 billion in 707 issues in the same period in 2024, according to LSEG data. This is still above the 10-year average of $35.436 billion.

Yields rose significantly for the fourth time this week as the aftereffects of President Donald Trump's tariffs continue to plague the financial markets.

"It seems like hitting last year's volumes should be within the strike zone for the marketplace," said Kyle Javes, a managing director and head of municipal fixed income at Piper Sandler.

After digit-double cuts out long Wednesday, muni yields rose an additional two to four basis points, depending on the curve, on Thursday.

Issuance remains heavy this week, but while it's elevated, the muni market is "structurally undersupplied," meaning if 2024's record level of $500 billion-plus of issuance was doubled, the market could still digest it quite well, said Wesly Pate, a senior portfolio manager at Income Research + Management.

February's volume was at $33.725 billion in 622 issues, up 1.6% from $33.191 billion in 614 issues in February 2024, according to LSEG data.

Issuance in the Far West was up 30.8% year-over-year to $98.9 billion. Muni market observers say issuers tried to beat the uncertainties of the election.

Volume in the Southeast was up 46% in 2024, led by Florida, where municipal bond sales more than doubled to $27.49 billion.

Issuers in the eight-state region sold $103.3 billion of bonds last year, with Texas deals accounting for $68.13 billion of the debt.

The muni market produced $512.7 billion of debt issuance in 2024, up 33.1% from $385.1 billion in 2023, according to LSEG data. This surpasses the previous record of $484.6 billion in 2020 by almost $30 billion.

Most states and sectors in the region beat their 2023 issuance by wide margins in 2024. 

January's volume was $35.243 billion in 486 issues, up 10.8% from $31.817 billion in 554 issues in 2024, according to LSEG data.

Sizable deals for next week include $1.3 billion of real estate transfer tax revenue bonds from the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority and $996.335 million of second series revenue bonds from the San Francisco International Airport.

The muni market saw $507.585 billion of debt issued in 2024, up 31.8% from $385.061 in 2023. This surpasses the previous record of $484.601 billion in 2020 by more than $20 billion, per LSEG data.

In the remaining days of this year, "taxable rates continue to be pressured but munis are finding a stable, even supportive, bidside," said Kim Olsan, a senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

Most on the Street expect issuance to come in around $500 billion, but a few think volume will be much higher, primarily because of potential changes to the tax exemption. Most firms expect refunding volumes to also grow in 2025.

November's total is below the 10-year average of $32.278 billion and is the lowest monthly total this year. The year's total is about $25 billion short of $500 billion.

The month's total is above the 10-year average of $40.288 billion. The market needs to see about $45 billion of issuance in November and December to hit an all-time record year.

The top 10 saw some shifts again.

Municipal triple-A yield curves played catch up to USTs Friday to close out a week of more mixed economic data that has economists constantly reevaluating their Federal Reserve policy expectations with little consensus.