Bond volume

The muni market produced $512.7 billion of debt issuance in 2024, up 33.1% from $385.1 billion in 2023, according to LSEG data. This surpasses the previous record of $484.6 billion in 2020 by almost $30 billion.

Most states and sectors in the region beat their 2023 issuance by wide margins in 2024. 

January's volume was $35.243 billion in 486 issues, up 10.8% from $31.817 billion in 554 issues in 2024, according to LSEG data.

Sizable deals for next week include $1.3 billion of real estate transfer tax revenue bonds from the Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority and $996.335 million of second series revenue bonds from the San Francisco International Airport.

The muni market saw $507.585 billion of debt issued in 2024, up 31.8% from $385.061 in 2023. This surpasses the previous record of $484.601 billion in 2020 by more than $20 billion, per LSEG data.

In the remaining days of this year, "taxable rates continue to be pressured but munis are finding a stable, even supportive, bidside," said Kim Olsan, a senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

Most on the Street expect issuance to come in around $500 billion, but a few think volume will be much higher, primarily because of potential changes to the tax exemption. Most firms expect refunding volumes to also grow in 2025.

November's total is below the 10-year average of $32.278 billion and is the lowest monthly total this year. The year's total is about $25 billion short of $500 billion.

The month's total is above the 10-year average of $40.288 billion. The market needs to see about $45 billion of issuance in November and December to hit an all-time record year.

The top 10 saw some shifts again.

Municipal triple-A yield curves played catch up to USTs Friday to close out a week of more mixed economic data that has economists constantly reevaluating their Federal Reserve policy expectations with little consensus.

Municipal bond insurers wrapped $28.921 billion in the first three quarters 2024, a 26.8% increase from the $22.814 billion insured in the first three quarters of 2023, according to LSEG data.

September volume came in over $44 billion leading volume year-to-date to hit more than $380 billion, just shy of 2023's full-year total issuance.

Issuance as of Wednesday is at $345.327 billion, a 32.7% increase over 2023. The Bond Buyer 30-day visible calendar on Monday was at $20.02 billion, the largest in nearly four years.

Municipal supply continues to grow as Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply sits at $20.02 billion and the municipal market will see one of the largest weeks of new-issuance at an estimated $13.35 billion, led by three billion-plus deals from Washington, D.C. ($1.6 billion), the New York City Transitional Finance Authority ($1.5 billion) and Illinois ($1 billion).

August's volume reached $49.174 billion in 873 issues, up 25% from 2023. August's total is above the 10-year average of $40.828 billion and is also the highest monthly total this year.

The calendar next week largely continues "the elevated pace of primary market volume seen since May, against a backdrop of broadly supportive fund flows (LSEG inflows for eight consecutive weeks), somewhat better dealer positions (although still heavy), mid-August reinvestment to spend, but lighter late summer attendance," said J.P. Morgan strategists led by Peter DeGroot.

Issuers in five Far West states increased their borrowing the first half of the year, while four saw sizable decreases.

The region's municipal bond volume grew by 42.4%, outpacing the nationwide 32% increase in a first-half marked by gas prepay deals and Brightline's big sale.

Issuers in the eight-state region sold $50.6 billion of bonds with Texas accounting for 65% of the volume.