New York City faces a risk of budget gaps bigger than $3 billion from fiscal 2018 through 2020, according to city Comptroller Scott Stringer.
Stringer identified net risks of $585 million in fiscal 2017, $1.02 billion in FY18, $908 billion in FY19 and $3.1 billion in 2020, according to an
The city charter requires such a report from the comptroller.
It forecasts modest economic growth at the national and city levels over the next several quarters.
"With major shifts in federal fiscal and economic policies looming, significant uncertainties weigh on the forecast," Stringer said Thursday. "Corresponding chances in policy may affect this forecast."
One day earlier, de Blasio's budget director, Dean Fuleihan, acknowledged the uncertainty of the Donald Trump presidency. "At this time, the consequences of federal action are unknown and potentially widespread," Fuleihan told members of the City Council finance committee at a City Hall hearing.
De Blasio's $83.46 billion November fiscal 2017 budget reflected shortfalls in non-property tax collections through the first three months of FY17, from July through September. Stringer's office extended this trend to the end of the calendar year and beyond, lowering anticipated tax revenues by a further $180 million in FY17 and $288 million in FY18.
With $1 billion in the general reserve and $500 million in the capital stabilization reserve, the danger of a fiscal 2017 shortfall is remote, according to Stringer.
Moody's Investors Service rates the city's general obligation bonds Aa2, while Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings assign AA. All three assign stable outlooks. The city had roughly $37.8 billion of general obligation debt as of Sept. 30.
"There is a high degree of uncertainty out our economy in the future," said Stringer. "We may see cuts from Washington that would likely fall most heavily on the most vulnerable New Yorkers.
"With potential long-term deficits looming, it is critical that we prepare now. We urge City Hall to take meaningful steps in the preliminary budget to prepare for the challenges ahead."
De Blasio is scheduled to present his fiscal 2018 budget in late January. His executive budget will come out in the spring and the 51-member City Council must approve the spending plan by June 30.
