Inflation will not grow as much as previously forecast, according to the latest projections in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's survey of professional forecasters.

The 39 economists surveyed expect inflation, as measured by core personal consumption expenditures, to reach the Fed’s 2% target in 2019, a year later than the prior survey projected. In fact, the survey projects inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, to gain 1.7% this year, off from the 2.3% rise projected in the prior quarter’s survey, while core CPI was lowered at a 1.7% increase projection from 2.2%. The PCE projection was cut to 1.5% from 1.8% in the prior survey, which core PCE is seen at 1.5% in 2017, a reduction from the 1.9% expectation last quarter.

The forecasts for inflation in the next two years were nearly all lowered a tick.

The GDP forecast for this year remains 2.1% growth, while next year’s forecast was cut to 2.4% from 2.5%, 2019’s expected growth rate is now 2.2.%, up from 2.1%, while 2020 will see 2.0% growth, down from an expected 2.3% rate.

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Gary Siegel

Gary Siegel

Gary Siegel has been at The Bond Buyer since 1989, currently covering economic indicators and the Federal Reserve system.