There is a more than 50% chance of a recession next year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, though the authors warn against “a strict interpretation of this result” since it involves imprecise estimates regarding the possibility of a recession stemming from international events.

Domestic factors are unlikely to spur a recession in the first half of 2012 and are only about one in three for the second half of the year, before declining.

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