NEW YORK – Forecasting real gross domestic product growth of 3.3% in each half of 2010, Livingston Survey participants raised estimates from 2.6% growth in the first half and 3.0% in the second.
Additionally, the participants see 3.0% growth on an annual basis in the first half of 2011.
Unemployment is seen at 9.8% in June, compared to previous estimates of 10.3%, dropping to 9.5% at the end of the year (down from earlier projections of 9.9% growth), and declining to 9.1% by mid-2011.
Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, were revised to 1.8% this year from 2.2% forecast earlier, while next year inflation is expected to run 1.7%, down from an earlier estimate of 1.8%. Producer prices are seen rising 4.1% this year, compared to earlier estimates of 2.4% growth, and 2.4% next year (up from 2.2% ).
The forecasts for interest rates on three-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes have fallen from the earlier survey. The interest rate on three-month Treasury bills is expected to be 0.16% at the end of June, down from the previous estimate of 0.25%, according to the report. The rate is seen rising to 0.40% by the end of 2010.
The interest rate for 10-year Treasury notes is expected to be 3.50% at the end of June, down from the previous estimate of 3.76%. It is then expected to rise to 4.00% by the end of 2010, lower than the previous estimate of 4.10%.
