Forecasters see a 1.1% increase in gross domestic product in the last half of the year, following a 3.9% drop in the first half, and expect 2.6% growth in the first half of 2010, according to the Livingston Survey, released yesterday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
The predictions are down from the previous survey, in which participants expected a 0.9% drop in the first half and 1.8% growth in the final two quarters of the year.
The survey also predicts jobless rates will rise through the middle of next year, going from 9.3% to 9.9% at year’s end and dipping to 9.8% in the first half of 2010, with an annual average of 9.1% in 2009 and 9.7% in 2010.
Predictions for inflation for the next six months, as measured by the consumer price index, have been cut to 1.4% from 2.1%, while over the year inflation is seen at negative-0.7% in 2009 and 1.7% in 2010, both lower than the previous estimates of 0.5% and 2.1%, respectively. When using the producer price index, inflation is expected to be negative-3.6% in 2009 and 1.3% in 2010, compared to the previous estimates of negative-0.8% and 1.1%.