NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators grew 0.5% in October, the Conference Board reported today.
LEI was revised to a 0.5% increase in September, originally reported as a 0.3% rise.
The coincident index grew 0.1% in October, after an unrevised flat reading in September, while the lagging index rose 0.1% after a revised 0.5% increase in September, originally reported as a 0.4% gain.
The LEI stands at 111.3, the coincident index is at 101.5 and the lagging index is at 108.7. The LEI has a baseline of 100, which reflects the level in 2004.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 0.5% in the month.
“The economy is slow, but latest data on the U.S. LEI suggest that change may be around the corner,” said the Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. “Expect modest holiday sales, driven by steep discounting. But following a post-holiday lull, the indicators are suggesting a mild pickup this spring.”
“The LEI remains on an upward trend, suggesting the modest economic expansion will continue in the near term,” according to the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “The LEI’s growth has been slowing this year, but gains in the financial components helped its pickup in October.”
Six of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in October: interest rate spread, stock prices, real money supply, average weekly manufacturing hours, index of consumer expectations, and building permits. Index of supplier deliveries, and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods were negative. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials were flat.
The coincident index saw employees on non-agricultural payrolls, personal income less transfer payments and manufacturing and trade sales rise in the month. Industrial production was unchanged.
The lagging index saw positives from change in labor cost per unit of output, and ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, average duration of unemployment, and change in CPI for services were negative. Average prime rate charged by banks, and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales were flat in the month.
