NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators grew 0.3% in September, the Conference Board reported today.
LEI was revised to a 0.1% increase in August, originally reported as a 0.3% rise.
The coincident index was flat in September, after an unrevised flat reading in August, while the lagging index rose 0.4% after a revised 0.1% increase in August, originally reported as a 0.2% gain.
The LEI stands at 110.4, the coincident index is at 101.4 and the lagging index is at 108.4. The LEI has a baseline of 100, which reflects the level in 2004.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 0.3% in the month.
“more than a year after the recession officially ended, the economy is slow and has no forward momentum,” said the Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. “The LEI suggests little change in economic conditions through the holidays or the early months of 2011.”
“The LEI remains on a general upward trend, but it is growing at its slowest pace since the middle of 2009,” according to the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “There isn’t any indication of a relapse into another downturn through the end of the year.”
Half of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in September: interest rate spread, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, real money supply, stock prices, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials. Index of supplier deliveries, building permits, and index of consumer expectations were negative. Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods and average weekly manufacturing hours were flat.
The coincident index saw personal income less transfer payments and manufacturing and trade sales rise in the month. Employees on non-agricultural payrolls, and industrial production were negative.
The lagging index saw positives from commercial and industrial loans outstanding, change in labor cost per unit of output, and average duration of unemployment. Change in CPI for services, and ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income were negative. Average prime rate charged by banks, and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales were flat in the month.
