NEW YORK - The composite index of Leading Economic Indicators grew 0.5% in July, the Conference Board reported Thursday.
The coincident index grew 0.3% in July after an unrevised 0.1% gain in June, while the lagging index rose 0.2% after a revised 0.4% increase in June, originally reported as a 0.3% gain.
LEI grew an unrevised 0.3% in June.
The LEI stands at 115.8, the coincident index is at 103.3 and the lagging index is at 110.0. The LEI has a baseline of 100, which reflects the level in 2004.
Economists polled by Thomson Reuters predicted LEI would be up 0.2% in the month.
“The economy is slow, with little momentum, and shows no indication of acceleration,” said the Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. “The gains in the LEI are modest, especially the nonfinancial indicators. Despite these growing risks, the economy should continue to expand at a modest pace through the fall.”
“The U.S. LEI continued to increase in July,” according to the Conference Board Economist Ataman Ozyildirim. “However, with the exception of the money supply and interest rate components, other leading indicators show greater weakness – consistent with increasing concerns about the health of the economic expansion. Despite rising volatility, the leading indicators still suggest economic activity should be slowly expanding through the end of the year.”
Six of the 10 indicators that comprise the LEI rose in July: real money supply, interest rate spread, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, stock prices, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials. Index of supplier deliveries, index of consumer expectations, and building permits were negative. Average weekly manufacturing hours held steady.
The coincident index saw industrial production, employees on nonagricultural payrolls, personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales all rise in the month.
The lagging index saw positives from commercial and industrial loans outstanding, and ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income. Average duration of unemployment and change in labor cost per unit of output were negative. Average prime rate charged by banks, change in CPI for services, and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales were flat in the month.
