The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January dropped to negative 0.32 from a revised positive 0.25 reading in December, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) rose to positive 0.30 from a revised positive 0.23 in December, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday.
In January 2012, the index was positive 0.42, while the CFNAI-MA3 was positive 0.28 in that month.
The December index was originally reported as positive 0.02, while the CFNAI-MA3 was first reported as negative 0.11.
The positive reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was somewhat above its historical trend, and suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI diffusion index increased to positive 0.10 from a revised positive 0.07 the month before, first reported as negative 0.05.
The production indicators subtracted 0.17 in the month (compared to a contribution of 0.35 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators contributed 0.02 in the month, after adding 0.10 in December, the Fed said.
Consumption and housing-related data subtracted 0.20 in the month, after subtracting 0.13 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories contributed 0.03 in the month, after subtracting 0.07 in December.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
The index was constructed using data available by February 21, with data for 51 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
Overall, 34 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 51 made negative contributions. While 33 indicators were better than the previous month, 12 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 52 deteriorated from December to January.
