Fed survey: Consumers see medium-term inflation rising

Register now

Consumers’ inflation expectations held for one-year, but rose for the three-year horizon, according to the September Survey of Consumer Expectations, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Tuesday.

“In particular, expectations about earnings, spending, income growth, home prices, financial situations and the stock market all deteriorated,” the survey noted.

Median inflation expectations held at 2.5% in September for a one-year period and grew to 2.8% from 2.5% for a three-year horizon.

Turning to labor, the expected earnings for one-year slid to 2.3% from 2.5%. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months held at 13.8%, while the mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months fell to 20.6% from 21.7%.

The probability of finding a job, if one lost his/her current job, gained to 59.2% from 58.3%.

Median one-year ahead home prices are expected to grow 3.0%, off from 3.3% last month, the Fed said.

Median household spending expectations slid to 2.7% from 3.0%. Income growth expectations dropped to 2.2% from 2.7%, its lowest reading since February 2014.

For reprint and licensing requests for this article, click here.
Economic indicators Federal Reserve Bank of New York