Consumers’ inflation expectations fell in the short-term, but rose over a longer period, according to the June Survey of Consumer Expectations, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday.

“Median inflation uncertainty (that is, the uncertainty expressed by respondents regarding future inflation outcomes) bounced back from the series’ lows at both [ one- and three-year] horizons,” the survey noted.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Bloomberg News

“Spending growth expectations rose sharply, while expected credit access and expected ability to make minimum debt payments improved. Median expected change in gasoline prices dropped to its lowest level since January 2016,” the survey said.

Median inflation expectations slid to 2.5% in June from 2.6% in May for a one-year period and rose to 2.8% from 2.5% for a three-year horizon.

Turning to labor, the expected earnings for one-year gained to 2.5% from 2.2%. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months dipped to 13.5% from 13.6%, while the chances of voluntarily leaving a job grew to 20.8% from 19.4% last month. The probability of finding a job, if one lost his/her current job) increased to 59.2% from 56.7%.

Median one-year ahead home prices are expected to grow 3.5%, up from 3.4% last month, the Fed said.

Median household spending expectations jumped to 3.3% from 2.6%, the lowest since the survey began in June 2013. Income growth expectations remained at 2.7%.

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Gary Siegel

Gary Siegel

Gary Siegel has been at The Bond Buyer since 1989, currently covering economic indicators and the Federal Reserve system.