The composite of the Leading Economic Index was off 0.1% in December following an unrevised 0.2% rise in November, the Conference Board said Thursday.
The coincident index rose 0.2% in December after a 0.2% rise in November, while the lagging index grew 0.5% in December, after a 0.5% increase in November.
The LEI stands at 111.7, the coincident index is at 105.1 and the lagging index is at 106.7. The LEI has a baseline of 100, which reflects the level in 2016.
Economists polled by IFR Markets predicted LEI would be down 0.1% in the month.
“The US LEI declined slightly in December and the recent moderation in the LEI suggests that the US economic growth rate may slow down this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board. “While the effects of the government shutdown are not yet reflected here, the LEI suggests that the economy could decelerate towards 2 percent growth by the end of 2019.”
As a result of the government shutdown, The Conference Board said it estimated data that weren’t published in December, and it delayed its annual benchmark revision until the data are released.
