An especially high
"Turnover of members of Congress is impactful," said Chuck Samuels, a member at Mintz and counsel to the National Association of Health & Educational Facilities Finance Authorities.
"For us, any turnover of leadership and any turnover of Ways and Means and Finance committee members are particularly important."
Reps. Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas and Dwight Evans D-Pa., who both serve on the current minority side of the House Ways and Means Committee, where all tax legislation flows through, are retiring.
Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, who sits on Ways and Means and chairs the House Budget Committee is also
Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a longtime Trump supporter from Georgia, will leave her seat in January, while Chip Roy of Texas is running for Lieutenant Governor.
Eleven Representatives are running for the Senate, seven Senators are retiring, while three more are running for Governor jobs.
"I think the general concern is the lessoning of institutional knowledge with the retirement of senior members including their staff," said Brett Bolton, vice president of federal legislative & regulatory policy, Bond Dealers of America.
"I don't think it will have any direct impact on specific muni priorities such as advance refunding or bank-qualified bonds, but I do think with the shrinking margins for the majority in the House, it lowers the likelihood of another reconciliation package for this Congress."
Rep. Lloyd Smucker, R-Pa., who is emerging as the likely replacement for Arrington as Budget chair, is already staking out positions on a second budget bill that would pick up where the One Big Beautiful Bill Act left off.
"I think there were a number of pieces of tax policy that were not included in the bill that we did, and I'd love to see some of those provisions passed," he said.
Smucker also champions reducing the federal debt by tapping tariff funds as opposed to using them to fund $2,000 rebate checks sent out to taxpayers.
"I've been thinking about the President talking about this potential tariff rebate," said Tom Kozlik, managing director, head of public policy and municipal strategy for Hilltop Securities.
"I don't think that they've necessarily said it, but that's the perfect policy that could be done in reconciliation. The One Big Beautiful Bill was a huge piece of legislation, and they got it done relatively easily."
OBBBA was passed with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress and an involved President. During Trump's first term a blue wave washed across the country in 2018 that changed the balance of power.
"Everyone is obviously watching whether the House majority changes," said Brian Egan, chief policy officer for the National Association of Bond Lawyers.
"If it does, we are looking at a divided government again, so that limits the prospects of partisan reconciliation packages in the next Congress. It generally lowers the likelihood of major consequential tax legislation passing."
The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee will have new faces replacing Democrats Representatives Jerry Nadler of New York and Jesús "Chuy" García of Illinois.
"This current Congress needs to address surface transportation by September 2026," said Egan.
"Municipal advocates have viewed transportation packages as natural vehicles for infrastructure finance tools, things like advance refunding or small borrowers' exemption reform to hitch a ride."
According to AdImpact, a firm that tracks advertising spending, "political ad spending for the 2026 midterm elections will hit $10.8 billion, a 21% increase over the last midterm cycle in 2022."
Political ad spending for the House is projected to reach $2.2 billion, a 27% increase over the 2024 cycle and a 40% jump over the 2022 cycle.
If a blue wave does not roll in with the tide of change, there's also a possibility that the Republicans could pad their leverage.
"It seems as though any turnover is going to be replaced with folks who more loyal to the Trump administration than even what they have now," said Kozlik.
