LOS ANGELES — The bifurcated recovery between California's coastal and inland regions continues to be a drag on the state's economy, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast's third quarterly report of 2013.
Anderson Forecast economists are predicting a "return to normalcy" for the U.S. economy with a caveat. While the economy will not be "normal" by historical standards, it will be noticeably better than in recent years. After growing 2.5% growth rate in the second quarter of 2013, the Forecast's economists predict real gross domestic product growth of 2.5% for the rest of the year, before rising to the historical 3% growth rate in 2014 and 2015.
Like the nation, California's economy continues to grow slowly.
The forecast calls for total employment growth - including payroll, farm and the self-employed - of 2.7% in 2013 and 2.1% and 2.1% in 2014 and 2015 respectively. Nonfarm payroll employment will grow more slowly at 1.7%, 1.9% and 2.2% for the three forecast years.
The California forecast report, authored by Senior Economist Jerry Nickelsburg, indicated that the economic news coming out of California is relatively bright when compared to the rest of the United States, but the state is not participating in the recovery equally. A stark division exists in the California economy by both geography and skill class.
The coastal economies in California that are driven by investment, technology, and trade have outperformed the U.S., according to Nickelsburg's report. Conversely, the inland economies driven by migration, construction and government have stagnated, he wrote.