NEW YORK - The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August declined to negative 0.43 from a revised positive 0.02 reading in July, while the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) widened to negative 0.28 in August, from July’s revised negative 0.27, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported Monday.
In August 2010, the index was negative 0.47, while the CFNAI-MA3 was negative 0.23 in that month.
The July index was originally reported as negative 0.06, while the July CFNAI-MA3 was first reported as negative 0.29.
The negative reading for the CFNAI-MA3 indicates national economic growth was below its historical trend, and suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity in the coming year, the Chicago Fed said.
The production indicators contributed positive 0.01 in the month (compared to a contribution of positive 0.26 in the previous month), while employment-related indicators contributed negative 0.08 in the month, after providing a positive 0.12 in July, the Fed said.
Consumption and housing-related data contributed negative 0.35 in the month, after contributing negative 0.33 the prior month, while sales, orders and inventories contributed negative 0.01 in the month, after a negative 0.03 contribution in June.
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values are associated with below-trend growth while positive values indicate above-trend growth.
Overall, 41 of the 85 indicators made positive contributions to the index in the month and 44 made negative contributions. While 35 indicators were better than the previous month, 15 of these still made negative contributions to the index. Also, 49 indicators deteriorated from July to August, and one was flat.
The index was constructed using data available by Sept. 22, with data for 52 of the 85 indicators having been published by then. The Fed said it used estimates for the missing data.
