Finance

For munis, the end of the shutdown helps steady the backdrop, said James Pruskowski, an investor and market strategist.

Fed Gov. Stephan Miran has spent his short tenure at the central bank arguing that disinflation in housing and immigration reforms will tamp down inflation in the near term. But other economists say the timing, degree and context of those effects is very much in question.

"Continuing yield stability ... suggests a comfortable market that, even with the shutdown apparently close to ending, may resist/lag potential price/yield changes in taxables," said Matt Fabian, president of Municipal Market Analytics.

Some of the most active sectors have been education (+29%), GOs (+17%) and healthcare (+17%), said Kim Olsan, senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

Assured Guaranty commented on Brightline and PREPA during its third-quarter earnings call, on which the company reported a 46% increase in third quarter gross par written year over year, to $7.85 billion from $5.38 billion.

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said emerging stresses in housing and private credit markets warrant a reduction to short-term interest rates. While preferring a 50 basis point cut in December, Miran said he would settle for a 25 basis point reduction.

The muni market may see additional volatility due to "uncertainties related to the future of tariffs and stronger inflation prints," said Barclays strategists led by Mikhail Foux.

Fresno, California, received a boost to positive from stable on its senior lien airport revenue bonds.

Investors added $1.266 billion to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ended Wednesday, following $744.3 million of inflows the prior week, according to LSEG Lipper data.

While the market navigates a surge in supply, another focus area has become elections and their potential to shift market demand, as several regional election results will likely garner greater attention over the next few months, said Kim Olsan, senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.

Tuesday saw a good slate of deals, including the acceleration of Ohio's $508.865 million of GOs and Austin's $419.035 million of electric utility system revenue refunding bonds.

Muni experts discussed how macroeconomic concerns and a volatile political environment are affecting the market as the market chalks up another record year of issuance.

In her first public appearance since President Trump moved to fire her from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Fed Gov. Lisa Cook reiterated her commitment to bringing inflation under 2% and said that the labor market remains "solid."

"Normalized supply, a supportive rate environment and favorable technicals propelled the municipal market to the best October performance [in decades]," said Robert J. Lind.

Meanwhile, the Brightline West train project has floated a possible debt exchange ahead of its own mandatory redemption later this month.

Next week's issuance is slated to be "substantial" — an estimated $13.1 billion — although that is expected to be met with "solid" November reinvestment capital, J.P. Morgan strategists said.

Technicals are supposed to become slightly more favorable into year-end, said Jeremy Holtz, a portfolio manager at Income Research + Management.

The one-notch upgrade to AA-minus for Oklahoma's flagship university was assigned to an upcoming approximately $160.7 million bond refunding.

Chicago Public Schools went to market this week with nearly $1.1 billion of refunding bonds in the largest municipal transaction the district ever completed.