Finance

Duluth-based St. Luke's affiliation with Aspirus Inc. has lifted the prospects for its speculative-grade bonds; S&P placed the hospital on CreditWatch positive.

In a week marked by inflation and jobs data that made clearer the Federal Reserve will not be cutting rates nearly as much or as many times as some had expected even a week ago, Friday's headlines further complicated the landscape for investors and munis have had little choice but to go along for the ride.

BABs can offer value for investors who can stomach the call risk, said municipal strategists.

Municipal bond mutual funds saw the seventh consecutive week of inflows and the 14th week of inflows for high-yield funds.

S&P's upgrade to BBB from BB-plus follows a March upgrade from Moody's Ratings, bringing the city to investment grade a decade after its historic bankruptcy.

"The news is sparking an equity market selloff while sending bond yields to the stars as investors dial down their Fed easing expectations again, this time to only two rate cuts this year," said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

Wednesday's CPI report will "shed more light on the path of inflation and the potential timing for rate cuts this year," said Cooper Howard, a fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab.

The deal comes amid market inflows and a dearth of high-yield supply, but demand will depend, as always, on the price, investors said.

Muni to UST ratios also continue to rise across the curve, inching closer to more normal averages.

As another economic indicator pushed investors closer toward the assumption that rate cuts are farther away, the relationship between munis, USTs and the vast amount of capital sitting on the sidelines becomes more challenging to navigate, particularly ahead of the tax-filing deadline and growing new-issue calendar.

The criteria should result in a nearly equal number of upgrades and downgrades in the next half year, according to the rating agency.

Some buying returned to the market Thursday from the buy-side and asset managers as dealers attempted to sell bonds, said Chris Brigati, senior vice president and director of strategic planning and fixed income research at SWBC.

Two mega deals recently priced with make-whole calls for bonds due in 2034 and shorter where the market does not appear "to be penalizing issuers for including an optional make whole call feature in the short maturity tax-exempt bonds," said Pat Luby, head of Municipal Strategy at CreditSights, in a report.

"Most spots on the muni AAA HG curve are at or near year-to-date highs, and the muni HG curve showed significant underperformance across the curve in March, relative to the broader fixed income market, after sizable muni outperformance in February," said J.P. Morgan strategists.

Municipal bonds on the rise

Among the items approved by the state Local Government Commission were $750 million of affordable housing bonds, the Turnpike Authority's Thursday sale of $184 million to refund BABs and Wake County's $321 million refunding bonds.

Before Tuesday's selloff, muni yields have been rising over the last several weeks due to "outsized" new-issue supply, said Anders S. Persson, Nuveen's chief investment officer for global fixed income, and Daniel J. Close, Nuveen's head of municipals.

John Hallacy of John Hallacy Consulting and Rich Ciccarone, president emeritus of Merritt Research Services, talk with Chip Barnett about the municipal bond business over the past 40 years. They take a look back at where the industry has been, where it is and where it will be going.

The uptick in supply amid tax season has led to a short-end correction and higher muni to UST short ratios, but the levels are still rather rich from a historical perspective.

Fitch Ratings analysts, who downgraded the bonds to junk in January, said they continue to monitor progress on the airport's automated guided rail system.