Jessica Lerner

Since the 52-week low on April 12, yields have risen by an average of 46 basis points.

"Ultimately, the case for fixed income generally, and munis specifically, is much stronger today than it was a year ago," said Nick Vendetti, municipal bond fund portfolio manager with Allspring Global Investments.

For the week, triple-A muni yields rose between 11 and 29 basis points, according to MMD, while UST yields rose 11 to 32 basis points.

"Steep corrections occurring inside 10 years on the curve reflect an ongoing process to reduce a deep inversion," said Kim Olsan, senior vice president of municipal bond trading.

The Investment Company Institute reported investors pulled another $290 million out of municipal bond mutual funds in the week ending May 10.

The market is seeing a supportive environment for munis, said Nisha Patel, managing director of SMA Portfolio Management at Parametric.

"With rates volatility seemingly subsiding in the past few weeks, we could start to see outflows decrease and demand flow back into munis," according to AmeriVet Securities' Jason Wong.

Investors will be greeted Monday with a new-issue calendar estimated at $6.018 billion with a few bellwether, triple-A names coming from Loudoun County, Virginia, Frederick County, Maryland, and Columbia University with sizable deals.

Outflows were seen again from municipal bond mutual funds, though they lessened this week as Refinitiv Lipper reported $101.664 million was pulled as of Wednesday.  

The CPI numbers coming in pretty much as expected "was a relief" to the markets, with the bond market rallying after the release, said Luke Bartholomew, senior economist at abrdn.

Despite the attraction for new issues, sources said there is still uncertainty overall in the municipal market stemming from the regional banking crisis.

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Now that there is more "clarity from the Fed on the path of interest rates, both investors and issuers may start to move off the sidelines," said Daniel Close, head of municipals at Nuveen.

Investors will be greeted Monday with a new-issue calendar estimated at $7.588 billion.

Outflows from municipal bond mutual funds intensified as Refinitiv Lipper reported $846.116 million was pulled from them as of Wednesday after $92.055 million of outflows the week prior. 

The secondary was quiet and the sole deal of size came from a $400 million-plus competitive water and sewer loan from Portland, Oregon. The recent rise in yields makes for more compelling levels.

"The market is expecting a 25 basis point rise in the Fed funds rate, but more importantly, investors are waiting for the comments for a better idea of what to expect going forward," said SWBC Investment Company's Roberto Roffo.

"Investors' jitters in the lead up to next week's Fed meeting resulted in some large macro market moves and a rise in volatility," noted BofA Securities strategists in a weekly report.

Total volume for the month was $30.599 billion in 577 issues, down from $40.423 billion in 900 issues a year earlier. Total issuance year-to-date is at $107.626 billion, falling 25.2% from the same period of 2022.

Taxable municipal issuance has decreased 40.9% year-over-year, but returns so far in 2023 are outperforming tax-exempts and high-yield.