Jessica Lerner

"Investor reception will remain the ultimate arbiter of muni performance and … the current state of the tax-exempt space to be well-positioned, even though munis are likely to continue to underperform USTs," said Jeff Lipton, a research analyst and market strategist.

Part of the surge in issuance came from issuers tapping the capital market after several years due to the inability to no longer postpone long-delayed projects and the drying up of pandemic aid.

VRDOs may be a "short-term solution" for issuers to refinance when the Fed starts cutting rates, said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer at 16Rock Asset Management.

Municipal bond insurers wrapped $18.592 billion in the first half of 2024, a 19.5% increase from the $15.561 billion insured in the first half of 2023, according to LSEG data.

Underwriting spreads rose to $7.11 in the first half of 2024 from $3.70 in the first half of 2023.

"There's an important 'date certain' the market may overreact to, but by and large, [this] week is looking positive given a lighter new- issue calendar," said AllianceBernstein strategists.

"After a long-period of muni yields not being that attractive relative to corporates, that's starting to shift," Charles Schwab's Cooper Howard said.

The past several trading sessions have seen "crazy volatility," said Jennifer Johnston, director of research of municipal bonds at Franklin Templeton.

Recent events have been a "roundtrip" for rates, starting with the sentiment shifting from slowing inflation to a softening labor market, said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer at 16Rock Asset Management.

This week's new-issue calendar will be "outsized," said Anders S. Persson, Nuveen's chief investment officer for global fixed-income, and Daniel J. Close, Nuveen's head of municipals.

"Decelerating or slowing economic growth has sparked a classic flight-to-quality trade with short-term Treasuries being the prime beneficiary," said Gary Pzegeo, head of fixed-income at CIBC Private Wealth U.S.

Data shows the average bids per competitive sale is up noticeably over the past few quarters, Justin Marlowe said, rising to 8.5 bids in Q1 2024 from 6.1 bids in Q1 2022.

All eyes now turn to the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting where the Fed is expected to cut rates, but market participants are mixed on whether it will be a 25- or 50-basis-point cut.

Muni ETFs have grown in popularity ever since the first launch in 2007, gaining a foothold due to their cost-effective nature and ability to help investors acquire a significant amount of diversification.

Municipal bond mutual funds saw inflows as investors added $1.112 billion to funds after $892.2 million of inflows the week prior, according to LSEG Lipper.

"The Fed remains data dependent as always, but it now appears that the 'more good data' bar is not as high as it was before, particularly with labor market developments becoming more important," said Michael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO Economics.

Issuance was lumpy in July, with three weeks of $10 billion issuance sandwiched between lower issuance due to the Fourth of July holiday at the start of the month and the FOMC meeting the last week.

Yields may move lower after the Federal Reserve "communicates its goals to ease policy in coming meetings," said Tom Kozlik, managing director and head of public policy and municipal strategy at HilltopSecurities.

"The overall muni market appears to be in a good balance despite the hefty slate of primary issuance that has occurred over the past few months," Birch Creek Capital strategists said.

U.S. Soccer will issue $200 million of tax-exempt revenue bonds through the Fayette County Development Authority.