Jessica Lerner

By the close, muni yields were bumped up to four basis points, depending on the curve, while UST yields rose two to five basis points.

"This was a much-needed rally as the long end struggled throughout the year, but now has been pushed back into positive territory," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

Investors added $2.183 billion to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ended Wednesday, following $623.3 million of inflows the prior week, according to LSEG Lipper data.

October is looking to be another blockbuster month for supply, with several $1 billion-plus deals on the shadow calendar, said Pat Luby, head of municipal strategy at CreditSights. 

The muni market is in a position to rally in the latter part of this year, said Daryl Clements, a portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein.

Monday's rally is a "continuation of what we are seeing," as the market is actively repositioning where it needs to go, said Alice Cheng, director of municipal credit and investor strategy at Janney.

The market strength is a carryover from Friday, when munis rallied upo 12 basis points after a weaker-than-expected jobs report solidified expectations for a September rate cut. This was the largest single-day rally since April.

Muni yields were bumped two to 12 basis points, depending on the scale, with the largest gains out long, and UST yields fell six to nine basis points, pushing the two-year UST to its lowest levels in over two years.

The rally stemmed from the weak nonfarm payrolls report and revisions brought down the three-month average to 29,000 jobs per month, further solidifying the chance of a rate cut in September, said Chris Brigati, managing director and CIO at SWBC.

Investors added $672.3 million to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ended Wednesday, following $590.4 million of inflows the prior week, according to LSEG Lipper data.

"It doesn't take but one comment or one market-moving data point to cause ETFs to shift the market pretty considerably," said Ajay Thomas, head of public finance at FHN Financial.

"Another set of eyes helps improve the deal for everybody, including the borrower, because the borrower is going to want a successful venture too," said John Miller, head and chief investment officer of First Eagle's municipal credit team.

Issuance year-to-date is at $386.689 billion, up 14.9% from $336.478 billion over the same period in 2024.

With the break in issuance this week, the market has firmed a bit, said Tim McGregor, managing partner at Riverbend Capital Advisors.

While issuance has been on a record pace this year, this week sees a slight slowdown in activity, caused by participants going on vacation, said Jeff Timlin, a partner at Sage Advisory.

While issuance is up year-over-year, weeks like this can be difficult to find the right deals, said Whitney Fitts, director of municipal portfolio management at Appleton Partners.

"We expect subdued activity again [this] week heading into the Labor Day holiday," Birch Creek strategists said.

Munis underperformed a UST rally, which had everything to do with Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium and future Fed action, said Cooper Howard, a fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab.

A possible explanation is that the massive inflows into mutual funds are a parallel move to large inflows into the Capital Group Municipal High-Income ETF, which saw the biggest inflow of a ETF on Friday at $1.5 billion, said Pat Luby, head of municipal strategy at CreditSights.

FOMC meeting minutes "clearly show why they didn't cut rates," said Northlight Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Chris Zaccarelli.