Jessica Lerner

Triple-A yields have fallen as much as 12 basis points over the past three trading sessions.

The asset class extended its selloff last week as concerns regarding the tax-exempt status of munis continued to mount, combined with a heavy new-issue calendar and tax season selling by investors, said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

"It seems like hitting last year's volumes should be within the strike zone for the marketplace," said Kyle Javes, a managing director and head of municipal fixed income at Piper Sandler.

Issuance for the week of March 31 is at $9.29 billion, with $8.011 billion of negotiated deals and $1.28 billion of competitive deals on tap.

These institutions will see increased usage if some threats to the market come to fruition.

Following Wednesday's selloff, muni yields were cut even further, with yields rising up to six basis points, depending on the scale. Meanwhile, UST yields rose two basis points out long.

The departures happened around the time Barclays handed out companywide bonuses and coincided with the firm in the process of shrinking its muni footprint in the regions, according to sources.

"We're navigating a crosscurrent of macro risks — tariffs, tax policy proposals, DOGE cuts, and evolving economic data — layered on top of a broader risk-off tone," said James Pruskowski, CIO of 16Rock Asset Management.

What's happening to the muni market is the "confluence of modest selling (via fund outflows and retail perhaps pausing during tax season); a heavy new issue calendar; and very thin near-term reinvestment expectations," said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

Lighter supply, at an estimated $7.9 billion, and still-attractive valuations should allow for solid muni performance this week, said J.P. Morgan strategists.

Municipal bond issuance for the week of March 24 is at $7.923 billion, with $6.673 billion of negotiated deals and $1.251 billion of competitive deals on tap.

Most of Thursday's issuance came from competitive deals, the largest being the Dormitory Authority of the State of New York with $2 billion-plus and California with $889 billion.

Wednesday marked the first trading session that saw cuts more than a basis point or two in spots since last week's extended selloff.

The slowdown of growth in the fourth quarter does not imply there is dwindling demand for munis, said Pat Luby, head of municipal strategy at CreditSights.

"While there has been some reported buying by relative value institutions amid higher ratios from the muni-centric price correction, the market as a whole may not rally this week," said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

Municipals are little changed to start the week after last week's selloff, which saw muni yields cut up to 20 basis points out long.

March had been expected to be difficult due to a "combination of heavy supply, low redemptions, rate volatility, tax-related selling and now fund outflows," said Barclays strategists Mikhail Foux and Grace Cen.

After digit-double cuts out long Wednesday, muni yields rose an additional two to four basis points, depending on the curve, on Thursday.

While the White Lake, Michigan, township hack is the best-known and publicly disclosed cyberattack, there have been others. Some issuers and firms are reluctant to share these experiences publicly.

"The supply/demand dynamic is a headwind for the muni market this week as supply is expected to be elevated," said Cooper Howard, a fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab.