Gary Siegel

The increase in yields and spread widening across municipal sectors has given some pause to high-yield investors after months of stagnation.

Municipals took a breather Monday, largely ignoring stock market volatility and softer U.S. Treasuries, ahead of a solid $9 billion new-issue week.

Ratios have moved into a higher, more favorable range, especially in the belly of the curve. The municipal calendar is building, led by taxables and refundings, after they dropped significantly in September.

The lower inflows and high-yield outflows can be tied to the correction over the past week and may point to uncertainty from retail investors over broader market volatility.

The high-grade muni scales saw cuts of up to four basis points in a continued selloff Monday as the market faces a robust slate of new issues.

Month-to-date returns for municipals are in the red with the Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices municipal index returning -0.12%, high-yield at -0.15% and taxables at -0.32%.

U.S. Treasuries sold off by double digits while municipals cut levels by one to three basis points. Refinitiv Lipper reported another $1.55 billion of inflows for the 29th consecutive week.

Without the primary in play and a mostly muted secondary, triple-A yield curves were little changed, coming nowhere near the moves in UST with the 10- and 30-year falling five and six basis points as equities saw their worst day since May.

Large new issues from California, New York utilities and airport deals were repriced to lower yields and remained the focus for the municipal market, again ignoring a swing by U.S. Treasuries.

Market participants welcomed the municipal-related provisions in the reconciliation bill but are hesitant to start making bets on its passage.

A larger new-issue calendar greets investors with a lot of cash on hand and strategists expect municipal yields to rise as the calendar builds.

Refinitiv Lipper reported $1.1 billion of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds, with high-yield falling to $144 million. Even with the lower reported inflows, funds still raked in record billions so far in 2021.

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Supply clocks in at $5.987 billion for the holiday-shortened week. Municipal new-issue volume is still lagging demand with Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply at $10.30 billion, while Bloomberg shows net negative supply at $11.430 billion.

Refinitiv Lipper reported just over $1 billion of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds, an $800 million drop from a week prior, moving the four week moving average to $1.6 billion.

ICI reported $1.99 billion of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds, bringing the total to $69 billion for 2021.

Daily bid-wanteds totals per Bloomberg have fallen to an average par value below $450 million from $640 million per day during the first quarter and $549 million in the second.

Returns of negative 0.40% would be the third-worst August performance of the past 10 years, according to Bloomberg data.

Experts agreed that Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the Fed could start tapering this year and that it would have no implications for liftoff, but not everyone was satisfied with what they heard.