Gary Siegel

Supply is beginning to roll in and the primary action on Wednesday provided more direction. ICI reports $1.4 billion of inflows.

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell would not commit to timing for liftoff, stressing decisions would be data-based and the Fed will not allow inflation to become entrenched.

Pressures from inflation concerns and broader rising rates weigh on munis in the second week of 2022.

Munis followed UST weaker while stocks sold off after the employment report, which offered many messages. Analysts believe the bottom line is the Fed will liftoff in March.

The Federal Reserve expects Omicron to fizzle in weeks, and while pandemic-related risks remain, the economy is strong and the Fed needs to address inflation and could liftoff as soon as March, Bullard says.

ICI reported $1.101 billion of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds for the last week of 2021. Refinitiv Lipper figures on Thursday may give a sense of investor sentiment for week one of 2022.

Municipals triple-A benchmarks continue the trend of ignoring other markets to start 2022. The new year will likely usher in slower growth and continued inflationary pressures, analysts said.

Municipal volume is estimated at $1.13 billion for the opening week of 2022. Persistently strong net supply challenges will bias credit spreads tighter, credit discipline weaker in the next few years, analysts say.

Net supply pressure among tax-exempts is expected to worsen in January compared to last year and the move toward richer tax-exempts is unlikely to reverse. "Dealers seem to be acknowledging this looming challenge," MMA notes.

Investors will also receive $139 billion of interest payments in 2022, about $593 million more than in 2021, according to a report from CreditSights.

Until supply comes, market participants appear to be content to sit back and let the calendar flip to a new year without making any big moves.

Municipals are sitting out the ups and downs in equities and UST, with $12 million scheduled for the primary in the final week of 2021.

Tax risks continue to linger as they are preserved as a potential offset for whatever level of spending all 50 Democratic senators can agree to, but potential approval of the legislation remains a question mark.

The Build Back Better in its current form essentially has been killed by Sen. Joe Manchin, likely limiting the potential for tax hikes in the coming year.

Despite outside pressures, municipal fundamentals are strong with improving credit pictures, issuers flush with federal cash and the ongoing supply-demand imbalance.

It marked the 40th straight week of positive flows into the long-term funds and brought the total inflows for this year near $82 billion. Exchanged-traded funds saw $168M of inflows.

Triple-A yield curves were unchanged on the day and mostly have not budged but a basis point in spots since the end of November.

Coming off last week's $19.5 million influx of weekly new issues, supply this week is lower as the market watches the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The Investment Company Institute reported $289 million of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds in the week ending Dec. 1, down from $965 million in the previous week.

Thirty-day visible supply drops to $13.54 billion with still a large chunk of new issues to be priced Wednesday and Thursday.