WASHINGTON – The jobs report surprised on the upside Friday, topping the range of expectations with a payrolls gain of 222,000, accompanied by another 47,000 payroll slots added in the prior two-month revisions.
Dori Allard, the BLS chief of labor statistics, told MNI in an exclusive interview during the data lockup that overall payroll gains, which have averaged 180,000 a month this year, are "right in line with last year's average of 187,000, she said.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday showed only the unemployment rate, edging up ever so slightly by a tenth to 4.4%, was more than anticipated but not by much. The Market News International range of expectations, which centered on 170,000, had topped out at 210,000.
The unemployment rate's upward move was minuscule, going to 4.356% from May's 4.294%.
The labor participation rate edged up a tenth to 62.8%, reflecting a featureless set of underlying components that saw relatively small changes. The Labor force expanded by 361,000, employment was up 245,000, and unemployed total rose by 116,000 and those dropping out of the labor force was a smaller total by 170,000.
The strong performance for the month saw health care up 37,000, above its trend for the year and even above its average for last year. Allard told MNI that health care "is averaging just 24,000 a month this year, compared to 32,000 a month last year."
Manufacturing was held to a gain of just 1,000 but the oil patch numbers stood out for their continuing vigor. Up 8,000 in June, the category has piled on 56,000 jobs or 9% of the total since October.
Social assistance jobs rose 23,000, financial activities added 17,000, and professional and business services was up 35,000, part of a 624,000 increase over the past 12 months.
Food services rose 29,000.
Wages again showed no particular outsized gain, rising 2.5% over the year with June's 4 cent addition.
May and April showed a net upward revision of 47,000 and May's weakish 138,000 total was upgraded to 152,000.
Hours rose by a tenth and the factory workweek was also up a tenth.
The June jobs report appeared to improve on the jobs picture as seen by the Federal Open Market Committee through its June meeting. The minutes of the meeting Wednesday said participants agreed, "Job gains had moderated since the beginning of the year" yet overall was "below levels that participants judged likely to be normal."
The June results were in line with MNI's Reality Check survey of recruiters Thursday that showed U.S. employers were still in hiring mode in June and indeed were preparing for a busy second half of the year. MNI's Vicki Schmelzer wrote, recruiters saw steady demand for new workers along with budding evidence of wage inflation.
"Companies are really seeing a pickup in their demand, especially as we go into the third quarter. So, they're needing to hire now to make sure that they have the people in place," said Cesiah Kessler, regional Vice President for the South Central Territory - Manpower, a brand of Manpower Group. Her territory covers eight states from New Mexico to Northern Florida.
