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Livingston Survey Lowers GDP Projections

Real gross domestic product forecast were lowered by participants in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's December Livingston survey, released Wednesday, with expectations for 1.8% growth in the last half of 2012.

In the June survey, forecasters saw 2.6% growth in the half. For next year, the survey suggests growth of 2.1% in the first half (down from the early prediction of 2.3% growth) and 2.3% in the second half.

In the labor markets, the survey sees unemployment at 7.9% at the end of 2012, 7.8% in June, and 7.7% by the end of next year. The 2012 prediction is down from the 8.0% forecast earlier this year.

Inflation, as measured by CPI, is seen at 2.1% for the next two years, while PPI inflation is seen rising to 2.4% next year and holding there in 2014.

Three-month Treasury bill rates are projected to stay steady at roughly 0.10% through the end of 2013, and grow to 0.20% by December 2014. The 10-year Treasury bond rates gradually increasing to 2.75% by December 2014, a year later than their earlier forecast.

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