Securitization

Andy DeVries of CreditSights is fairly optimistic about the eventual outcome for bondholders, though its tax-exempt paper has been trading at a discount.

The muni market "finally succumbed to the month-long rate selloff that had seen valuations test historically rich levels," said Birch Creek Capital strategists in a weekly report.

The new-issue calendar for the final week of August is estimated at a meager $2.979 billion. Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply sits at $5.76 billion.

Refinitiv Lipper reported $534.428 million of outflows from municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Wednesday after $264.046 million of outflows into the funds the previous week.

Supply scarcity is helping the market through the Treasury volatility. Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply currently sits at $4.72 billion.

This week's new-issue supply needs to be "priced to sell to pique investor interest," said noted Nuveen's Daniel Close and Anders S. Persson.

Tracey Manzi, senior investment strategist at Raymond James, talks with Chip Barnett about the fixed income markets today and how munis and Treasuries are doing. She says the number one issue clients are asking about is inflation. (20 minutes)

Continued pressure on the UST market coupled with the end of the summer reinvest may begin to test new issues as investors are able to be more selective.

"Bearish Treasury moves have kept some pressure on the muni market and prevented an attempt to rally during the summer season when large redemptions trump issuance," BofA Global Research said in a report.

Refinitiv Lipper reported $264.046 million of outflows from municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Wednesday after $278.559 million of inflows the previous week.

Municipal CUSIP request volume decreased in July on a year-over-year basis, following an increase in June, according to CUSIP Global Services.

Summer redemption season ends Tuesday when issuers return $9 billion of matured or called bond principal, said CreditSights strategists Pat Luby and Sam Berzok.

The investor-owned utility issues tax-exempt bonds through the Hawaii Department of Budget and Finance.

"The recent outperformance has valuations nearing stretched levels again," Birch Creek Capital said in a weekly report. "If USTs reverse the recent trend higher, we would not be surprised to see munis lag during the rally."

Another day of mixed inflation data led Treasury yields to rise but munis mostly stayed put after underperforming a UST rally earlier in the week. The market is also focused on the $9 billion of redemption flows coming on Tuesday.

Refinitiv Lipper reported $278.559 million of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Wednesday, led by exchange-traded funds.

New York City's $1 billion deal was re-priced to lower yields and a tax-exempt and taxable deal for the NFL's Tennessee Titans new stadium priced.

Municipals followed U.S. Treasuries firmer after markets reacted to the Moody's downgrade of several mid-sized U.S. banks. New issues saw good demand and repriced to lower yields as a result.

While triple-As were little changed the past two sessions, some damage was done last week, leaving market participants generally less optimistic for the final weeks of August.

Late summer is "rarely a good time for our asset class," Barclays strategists said, noting the municipal investment grade index lost money in August three years in a row, and 2023 seems to follow this trend.