Securitization

Munis saw cuts, albeit small ones, for the first time in nearly two weeks as yields rose up to four basis points, depending on the scale.

By the close, muni yields were bumped up to four basis points, depending on the curve, while UST yields rose two to five basis points.

As the "slope of the municipal yield curve remains extremely steep and long bonds are cheap relative to U.S. Treasuries," Daryl Clements, a portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein, predicts "long municipal bonds have a long way to go until they are considered fair value."

"This was a much-needed rally as the long end struggled throughout the year, but now has been pushed back into positive territory," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

Tax-exempt munis, supported by USTs, are having a very good month as MMD yields are down 30 to 35 basis points out long, and both the investment-grade and high-yield indices are seeing gains of more than 2% month-to-date, Barclays strategists led by Mikhail Foux said.

Investors added $2.183 billion to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ended Wednesday, following $623.3 million of inflows the prior week, according to LSEG Lipper data.

October is looking to be another blockbuster month for supply, with several $1 billion-plus deals on the shadow calendar, said Pat Luby, head of municipal strategy at CreditSights. 

A mix of broader market dynamics and Chicago-specific pressures is driving the widening spreads, investors said.

The muni market is in a position to rally in the latter part of this year, said Daryl Clements, a portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein.

Monday's rally is a "continuation of what we are seeing," as the market is actively repositioning where it needs to go, said Alice Cheng, director of municipal credit and investor strategy at Janney.

The market strength is a carryover from Friday, when munis rallied upo 12 basis points after a weaker-than-expected jobs report solidified expectations for a September rate cut. This was the largest single-day rally since April.

Muni yields were bumped two to 12 basis points, depending on the scale, with the largest gains out long, and UST yields fell six to nine basis points, pushing the two-year UST to its lowest levels in over two years.

The rally stemmed from the weak nonfarm payrolls report and revisions brought down the three-month average to 29,000 jobs per month, further solidifying the chance of a rate cut in September, said Chris Brigati, managing director and CIO at SWBC.

Investors added $672.3 million to municipal bond mutual funds in the week ended Wednesday, following $590.4 million of inflows the prior week, according to LSEG Lipper data.

Looking solely at internal factors, "the municipal market itself is still doing well, reasonably via the temporary drop in new issue supply amid a more lasting reduction in reinvestment flows," said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

Thanks to strong technicals and the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting, municipal bonds posted positive returns of 0.87% in August, reversing their losses of 0.20% in July, according to Jason Wong, vice president municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

Issuance for the week of Sept. 2 is at an estimated $7.457 billion, with $6.179 billion of negotiated deals and $1.278 billion of competitive deals on tap, according to LSEG.

With the break in issuance this week, the market has firmed a bit, said Tim McGregor, managing partner at Riverbend Capital Advisors.

While issuance has been on a record pace this year, this week sees a slight slowdown in activity, caused by participants going on vacation, said Jeff Timlin, a partner at Sage Advisory.

While issuance is up year-over-year, weeks like this can be difficult to find the right deals, said Whitney Fitts, director of municipal portfolio management at Appleton Partners.