Securitization

Inflows returned to muni mutual funds as investors added $200.3 million for the week ending Wednesday after $1.474 billion of outflows, according to LSEG Lipper.

The "impressive" investor appetite for tax-exempts has been "holding steady all quarter despite expensive valuations, supply surges and periods of low reinvestment demand," said GW&K Investment Management strategists in a report.

"Bifurcated demand reflects the persistent bid strength from [separately managed accounts] and retail investors, not to mention more accounts marshaling cash and liquidity up front while the Fed perspective evolves," said MMA's Matt Fabian.

The trio have decades of experience in high yield and investment grade portfolios and will launch new high-yield investment strategies and vehicles for Rockefeller.

The new-issue calendar will be a "good test to see if the higher absolute yields can pull buyers off the sidelines or if underwriters need to widen spreads significantly enough to reprice the entire market to clear the deals," according to Birch Creek strategists.

A combination of a "stronger-than-expected economy, higher Treasury rates, robust supply, and rich valuations resulting in choppy markets" have made the trading environment in H124 "quite difficult," according to Barclays.

"Folloing recent yield moves, a generic muni index is now down 1% on the month with no real sub-sector showing much deviation from that result," said Kim Olsan, senior vice president of trading at FHN Financial.

The finance team is "marketing slices of risk" to raise money to refinance its debt, investors said.

Despite higher yields, muni to UST ratios remain rich. Ratios look "progressively richer" moving into the five- to 10-year part on the curve, with the 10-year spot "still far more attractive in taxables versus tax-exempts," J.P. Morgan said.

"April has been one of the worst-performing months over the past five years, which we believe warrants continued caution," BlackRock strategists said.

Barclays' Mikhail Foux talks shifting demand, BABs refundings, election effects and what it means for the asset class in a volatile market.

April continues to be "harsh" for munis as the asset class has given up roughly 72 basis points in the first two weeks of the month, said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

In a week marked by inflation and jobs data that made clearer the Federal Reserve will not be cutting rates nearly as much or as many times as some had expected even a week ago, Friday's headlines further complicated the landscape for investors and munis have had little choice but to go along for the ride.

BABs can offer value for investors who can stomach the call risk, said municipal strategists.

Municipal bond mutual funds saw the seventh consecutive week of inflows and the 14th week of inflows for high-yield funds.

"The news is sparking an equity market selloff while sending bond yields to the stars as investors dial down their Fed easing expectations again, this time to only two rate cuts this year," said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

Wednesday's CPI report will "shed more light on the path of inflation and the potential timing for rate cuts this year," said Cooper Howard, a fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab.

The deal comes amid market inflows and a dearth of high-yield supply, but demand will depend, as always, on the price, investors said.

Muni to UST ratios also continue to rise across the curve, inching closer to more normal averages.

As another economic indicator pushed investors closer toward the assumption that rate cuts are farther away, the relationship between munis, USTs and the vast amount of capital sitting on the sidelines becomes more challenging to navigate, particularly ahead of the tax-filing deadline and growing new-issue calendar.