Securitization

As municipals continue to underperform the moves in U.S. Treasuries, current ratios are attractive and present a buying opportunity.

Market volatility has risen significantly, particularly in the last several weeks, with daily Treasury yield swings of 10 basis points or more becoming the norm with municipals struggling to stabilize.

Ongoing turmoil in the Ukraine is roiling markets, municipals included. Refinitiv Lipper reported more outflows, with high-yield seeing $818.218 million pulled out in the latest week.

The MSRB’s annual fact book, released on Wednesday, shows that par amount trading volume was down 28% in 2021 when compared with 2020.

The Investment Company Institute on Wednesday reported $2.637 billion of outflows in the week ending Feb. 23, down from $3.120 billion of outflows in the previous week.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine could slow interest rate hikes and has led the market to pull back on the chances of a 50-basis-point liftoff.

All markets, but particularly municipals, are in uncharted territory once again, with volatility amplified by the crisis in Ukraine and a still somewhat uncertain path for the Federal Reserve and inflation.

The new-issue calendar is $5.45 billion while 30-day visible supply sits at $11.14 billion. The largest deal of the week comes from the New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority with $793.83 million.

Investors yanked $1.154 billion out of municipal bond mutual funds in the latest week, Refinitiv Lipper reported.

The Investment Company Institute on Wednesday reported $3.120 billion of outflows in the week ending Feb. 16, up from $993 million of outflows in the previous week.

Between the long holiday weekend and investors trying to absorb the Russia-Ukraine developments, it was a slow start to the week in the municipal market.

Municipals have been resilient throughout the pandemic — with the help of federal aid — keeping the Golden Age for public finance alive.

The new-issue calendar for the holiday-shortened week is $4.98 billion, with $3.633 billion of negotiated deals and $1.347 billion of competitive loans.

Refinitiv Lipper reported outflows after inflows of $216 million the previous week.

Rates could go up faster than they did in 2015 if predictions for the economy hold, minutes from the FOMC said, but the release offered no hints as to whether a 50 basis point liftoff would be considered.

Municipal bonds' relative value has increased dramatically as rates have risen and credit fundamentals have improved, with municipal-to-Treasury ratios now on par with their five-year averages.

Inflation remains under market scrutiny, with Monday’s data suggesting consumers expect price pressures to cool later this year.

Municipal yields rose up to 10 basis points on the short end, playing catch up to the volatility of Treasuries' moves on Thursday. Rising UST rates will inevitably be more significant for munis until they settle into more stable levels.

Refinitiv Lipper reported the first inflows into municipal bond mutual funds at $216 million after three weeks of large outflows while high-yield saw small outflows. Exchange-traded funds reported $755 million of inflows.

Markets were somewhat comforted by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic’s comments suggesting the Fed will not be as aggressive as the markets suspect.