Secondary bond market

Munis were in their own lane while broader markets were mixed Monday as participants digested various Fed officials' comments on inflation and rate hike schedules.

Refinitiv Lipper reported $2.537 billion of outflows from municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Wednesday after $2.389 billion the week prior.

Municipal bond mutual funds saw more losses on Wednesday with the Investment Company Institute reporting another week of multi-billion-dollar outflows, bringing year-to-date losses to $123.3 billion.

The market has seen outflows for 13 straight weeks, per Refinitiv Lipper, but Nuveen strategists Anders S. Persson and John V. Miller said "selling is due primarily to investors harvesting tax losses."

Voters will decide on more than $60 billion of bond ballot measures Tuesday with New York voters faced with the largest amount at $4.2 billion.

ICE TMC, part of ICE Bonds, provides market participants access to an all-to-all market for trading munis and other bonds.

Investors will be greeted Monday with a new-issue calendar estimated at $5.268 billion.

High-yield saw outflows of $867.067 million after $594.497 million of outflows the week prior while exchange-traded funds saw inflows of $736.967 million after $444.544 million of inflows the previous week.

Investors pulled $3.843 billion from mutual funds in the week ending Oct. 26 after $3.876 billion of outflows the previous week, according to ICI.

October returns were in the red with the Bloomberg Municipal Index showing a loss of 0.83% for the month, bringing total losses in 2022 to 12.86%. Only May and July saw positive returns for the asset class.

With the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week and the next week shortened by the bond market observance of Veterans Day, CreditSights strategists said "investors should be prepared for two weeks of subdued new issuance."

The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday has led to a lighter new-issue calendar with $2.72 billion on tap.

Municipal to UST ratios have risen this week with the 10-year approaching 90% and the 30-year topping 100%.

Outflows continued as investors pulled $3.876 billion from mutual funds in the week ending Oct. 19 after $4.532 billion of outflows the previous week, according to the Investment Company Institute.

While muni performance has turned negative for October, "the asset class is significantly outperforming UST," said Jeff Lipton, managing director of credit research at Oppenheimer Inc.

"Municipal market performance has improved, but the bumpy road continues as investors remain uncertain about the interest rate environment," said Nuveen's Head of Municipals John Miller.

Selling pressure was on the rise again this week. Thursday's $2.919 billion of bonds out for the bid was only surpassed on March 19, 2020, when they hit $4.115 billion. A larger calendar closes out October.

"The curve slope has undergone a massive flattening this year and recent trends suggest demand pockets are developing in specific ranges," said Kim Olsan, senior vice president of municipal bond trading at FHN Financial.

Outflows continued as investors pulled $4.532 billion from mutual funds in the week ending Oct. 12 after $5.172 billion of outflows the previous week, according to the Investment Company Institute.

Triple-A curves were a touch firmer in spots as secondary trading took a backseat to the larger primary activity with Connecticut and Massachusetts pricing general obligation bonds, a large CommonSpirit healthcare and several competitive issues led by Rhode Island GOs.