Secondary bond market

Absolute yields "remain attractive in the context of the trading range over the past three years and our longer-term projections for lower rates this year," according to J.P. Morgan strategists.

The onslaught of new-issuance and approaching month- and quarter-end led triple-A yields to rise up to seven basis points on the short end and as much as three to five elsewhere along the curve, despite stronger U.S. Treasuries. Short ratios rose as a result.

This week's new-issue calendar grows and includes some "common benchmark names like CA GO, NYC GO, and WA GO," Birch Creek strategists said.

The calendar is led by several high-profile deals, including $2.7 billion of GOs from California, $1.5 billion from New York City and $1.1 billion from Washington. High-yield gets another dose of unrated project finance debt from Miami Worldcenter Project tax increment revenue bonds. The Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply sits at $12.06 billion.

Hallam will handle high-yield muni sales and trading, focusing on large institutional accounts at the firm.

LSEG Lipper reported fund inflows of $63.8 million for the week ending Wednesday following $300.5 million of inflows the prior week. High-yield saw its 11th consecutive week of inflows at $180.4 million, down from $278.6 million the week prior.

The extraordinary redemptions being used to call Build America Bonds "are based on a creative but flawed legal argument driven by the current change in interest rates," said Kramer Levin partner Amy Caton.

Citi's exit comes amid the larger trend of broker-dealers downsizing balance sheets, which can hurt secondary market liquidity, particularly in times of stress. Other market players are coming into the fold.

"The balance of March may continue to be better-than-expected, particularly given existing demand and decent reinvestment needs over the next 30 days," according to Oppenheimer's Jeff Lipton.

Despite several larger deals entering the primary, the vast amount of cash on hand has not allowed munis to cheapen amid UST volatility and ultra-rich ratios

The New York MTA has not sold fixed-rate transportation revenue bonds since February 2021. The first maturity of that deal (4% 11/15/44) priced at +81 and was evaluated at +78 as of Wednesday by BVAL, according to CreditSights strategists. The same maturity but with a 5% coupon was priced at +59 to BVAL.

Marc Livolsi was promoted to lead U.S. Public Finance New Issue Marketing and Business Development, and Evan Boulukos will lead Assured's Secondary Markets desk, both of whom will report to Chris Chafizadeh, senior managing director and co-head of Public Finance.

"While rate volatility returned this week, should the market return to range-bound levels for a protracted period of time, investors might want to add exposure to sectors that provide the most value and have underperformed thus far," Barclays said. 

Inflows continued for the third consecutive week as LSEG Lipper report fund inflows of $295.5 million for the week ending Wednesday with high-yield hitting the 10th consecutive week of positive flows.

The Investment Company Institute reported larger inflows into municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending March 6, with investors adding $956 million to funds following $57 million the week prior.

Narens' hiring complements Stifel's public finance practice and the types of deals the firm is doing, said Betsy Kiehn, managing director and head of Stifel's Municipal Capital Markets Group.

"The muni AAA [high grade] curve has been relatively steady thus far in March, but lags relative to the broader fixed income market after sizable muni outperformance in February," said J.P. Morgan strategists. 

Issuers have increased their debt sale in recent weeks, as issuance has come in above $70 billion year-to-date, according to LSEG data

High-yield and taxable munis continue to outperform, supply grows but concentrates in larger deals led by $3 billion of state personal income tax revenue bonds from the Dormitory Authority of the State of New York next week.

The market is being led more by supply and demand than ratios or even rates. As ratios sit at extremely tight levels, there are buyers engaging at these levels, but large amounts of cash continue to sit on the sidelines.