Secondary bond market

It was a good day for munis with larger deals clearing the primary and secondary trading showing a more constructive tone with triple-A yields falling a few basis points amid a stronger session for all markets.

Large deals were repriced to lower yields while the secondary market was lightly traded, leading to little changed triple-A yield curves and underperformance to Treasury market gains. Despite a growing calendar, the supply demand imbalance remains with much cash on the sidelines.

The muni market "exhibited similar themes from the past few weeks as extremely rich valuations and the upcoming unfavorable supply/demand picture have led to a measured buyer base," said Birch Creek Capital strategists in a report.

The negotiated calendar is led by the Regents of the University of California with nearly $1 billion of general revenue bonds.

Municipals look poised to close out February a touch in the black following a more constructive tone Thursday after being in a 'holding pattern' for much of the past two weeks.

Issuance is already slated to be healthy next week, with some large deals on the calendar.

Munis should remain well bid until issuance picks up "dramatically," said Nuveen's Anders S. Persson and Daniel J. Close.

CreditSights said states with the largest payments are Texas at $2 billion, Pennsylvania at $1.5 billion, South Carolina at $1.3 billion and California at $1.2 billion

The bonds are rated Aa2 by Moody's Investors Service, AA by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings and AA-plus by Kroll Bond Rating Agency. All four rating agencies have a stable outlook on the credit.

The week ahead boasts some big-name issuers and rare credits, which should provide interesting price discovery. The new-issue calendar totals $6.08 billion, with a larger competitive calendar coming in at $2.4 billion.

Supply is expected to increase in the coming weeks, and there may be more rate-direction volatility, said Kim Olsan, senior vice president of municipal bond trading at FHN Financial.

Policymakers appear to be concerned about the possibility of cutting interest rates too soon, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's Jan. 30-31 meeting, released Wednesday.

"With the new economic data signaling a delay of the Fed starting rate cuts to further into the year, we should continue to see yields rise until we get near to the Fed's target of a 2% 'neutral' rate for inflation," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

"With supply still low, and fund outflows just marginal, it is not clear what would substantially cheapen the market, and we could get stuck in the current range for some time time," Barclays strategists said.

Municipal bond mutual funds saw the second week of outflows, with LSEG Lipper reporting $142.2 million of outflows for the week ending Wednesday. High-yield funds saw inflows.

Despite losses, munis are still outperforming USTs and corporates on a month-to-date and year-to-date basis, noted Cooper Howard, a fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab.

The consumer price index number further complicates market expectations of Fed rate cuts and muni investors may want "to keep their powder dry" until they have a better idea of the Fed's timing, said CreditSights' Pat Luby.

The muni market will see "continued strength," said Wesly Pate, senior portfolio manager at Income Research + Management, largely due to a a dearth of new-issue supply.

"Even though it is hard to see the market falling out of bed and underperforming in the near term, we are more cautious going into March," Barclays PLC said in a report.

Ex-IFS Securities head of fixed income Keith Wakefield committed criminal securities and wire fraud from 2017 to 2019, a federal jury in Illinois found.