Secondary bond market

Despite some slight weakness Monday, munis continued an "impressive start to June," with yields falling 10 to 13 basis points last week, Birch Creek strategists said.

According to the board, the addition is an important means to enhance market transparency and is in line with its FY24 priority to expand the EMMA platform.

The new-issue calendar is led by the New York Transportation Development Corp. with $1.5 billion of green AMT special facilities revenue bonds for the John F. Kennedy International Airport New Terminal One project,

"Even after this week's rally, absolute yields look attractive in the context of the trading range over the past three years, May's underperformance versus taxable fixed-income, and our longer-term projections for lower rates this year," J.P. Morgan strategists said.

"It is important to remember that as long as the Fed's next move is to lower policy rates, bonds will do well," said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global. "The employment market is in better balance, which is very important for the Fed — even more than inflation."

Driven by ongoing capital expenditure funding and current refunding opportunities, airport issuance is estimated at $21 billion in 2024, with a slew of from June through September and more planned in December, according to Ramirez.

"We will remain cautious until CPI and the FOMC are in the rear-view mirror and as long as these don't catalyze a sell-off (since that would trigger outflows) or catalyze a sharp rally (as municipals lag rates during a sharp rally and ratios can increase optically) ... " said Vikram Rai, head of municipal markets strategy at Wells Fargo.

Munis should see better performance this week as issuance falls to $5.2 billion this week and cash still needs to be reinvested, said Jason Wong, vice president of Municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

USTs spiked 17 basis points on the short end and 15 to 12 10-years and out following the release, while triple-A curves saw yields rise two to five basis points, depending on the yield curve, in a more muted and typical reaction for the asset class.

Municipal bond mutual funds saw inflows as investors added $549.2 million after $94.9 million of outflows the week prior, according to LSEG Lipper.

Issuance remains robust Wednesday with an estimated $5.9 billion, said J.P. Morgan strategists led by Peter DeGroot.

New-issue volume has topped $50 billion over the past few weeks, said AllianceBernstein in a weekly report.

Falling occupancy figures, staffing shortages, and rising labor costs have elevated the sector's risk, with Greenwich Investment Management's bankruptcy yet another example of how the sector requires thorough credit analysis.

This week's surge in issuance, which tops $14 billion, is "likely going to keep a lid on any enthusiasm," Birch Creek strategists said in a weekly report.

While particpants expect some pressure in the near-term with more than $16 billion on tap, they also say the current yield and ratio levels offer investors opportunity.

Despite losses, munis are "being set up nicely" as the summer season approaches, said Jeff Lipton, a research analyst and market strategist.

Muni yields rose up to 13 basis points Wednesday, depending on the curve, coming on the tailwind of a market correction, said Brad Libby, a fixed-income portfolio manager and credit analyst at Hartford Funds.

SMA growth has been "pretty staggering to see," said Matthew Schrager, managing director and co-head of TD Securities Automated Trading, noting the "interplay between SMA and electronic trading is a very symbiotic relationship."

Munis sold off last week "as the anticipated market correction may have finally started ahead of the summer reinvestment period," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

A pair of muni market experts propose cities and towns borrow through state-based, credit-enhanced bond banks to make the market more efficient.