Secondary bond market

"I don't mind owning a railroad for $2.4 billion," said Assured CEO Dominic Frederico.

Munis should do "relatively well" this month, as investors will "focus on heavy summer redemptions; tax-exempt supply should remain healthy but is unlikely to overwhelm," said Barclays strategists.

"The rates market has started to turn from the upper end of the trading range this week," Barclays strategists wrote, but with the war with Iran still driving the market, nothing is certain.

New research from The Bond Buyer finds the federal policy environment once again threatens the tax-exempt status for municipal bonds.

Munis and U.S. Treasuries have been more reactive to geopolitical news than to economic data that traditionally moves the market, according to MMA's Kevin McGuigan.

The muni new-issue market got a breather after a heavy supply day on Tuesday, according to Franklin Templeton's Jennifer Johnston.

Senior bonds most recently traded for 30 cents on the dollar.

The muni market digested Tuesday's heavy supply in the way analysts expected, H.J. Sims analyst Tim Iltz said.

SWBC's Chris Brigati said he doesn't expect the geopolitical tensions to cause similar losses to muni yields unless oil prices or Treasury yields move significantly higher.

With continued geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices, things could change on a dime, said Sweta Singh, founding partner and portfolio manager at City Different Investments.

Munis were quiet on Friday after an eventful April.

Investors are digesting developments in the Middle East and the Fed's decision not to cut rates, according to FHN Financial's Ajay Thomas.

The average muni bond trade size fell below $204,000 in the first quarter, down 5% from 2025, according to Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board data.

"The market is starting to feel a little bit on the heavy side," said Jamie Iselin, head of municipal fixed income at Neuberger Berman. "The Treasury market has been leaking higher as, I think, people are getting concerned that the conflict in the Middle East is going to [last] longer."

Muni yields increased "in sympathy with the Treasury market," according to Charles Schwab's Cooper Howard.

All sectors of the muni market posted gains in April, Kim Olsan wrote, exemplifying the market's better-than-expected resilience.

"What the market's really trying to figure out is what that Warsh regime is going to mean," said Tom Kozlik of HilltopSecurities. "Folks are really trying to position their mindsets, position their portfolios."

"Investors typically start positioning for heavy summer redemptions in summer, so the market typically performs well enough through the first half of June and we do not believe that this year will be any different," Barclays strategists said.

It was another "topsy-turvy day" for munis, said Kim Olsan, senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital. Munis have been weaker on the front end for a few days, leading to a slight inversion of the curve, starting around the 2028 maturities, Olsan said.

Mohammed Murad, head of credit research for PT Asset Management, said the ceasefire extension "possibly offers less clues as to what a permanent resolution may look like."