Secondary bond market

"Earlier this month, Chair [Jerome] Powell noted that there was no 'hurry' to cut rates," noted BMO Senior Economist Priscilla Thiagamoorthy. The minutes, she noted, "confirm a broad support for taking a more cautious approach in easing monetary policy."

Markets could see that "the risks of higher inflation and interest rates are implicit constraints on the Trump policy agenda, with the eventual policy outcomes potentially less inflationary than some investors previously feared," UBS strategists noted.

Supply has "declined materially, allowing dealers to take a breather, with their inventories dropping significantly, while retail investors do not seem to be spooked by rate volatility, lower taxes and possible threats to the tax-exempts, and continued putting money into tax-exempts at a brisk pace," said Mikhail Foux, managing director and head municipal research and strategy at Barclays.

High-yield funds saw $608.9 million of inflows compared with inflows of $150.3 million the week prior.

"Volatility creates all kinds of opportunities in the municipal space, not just for tax-loss harvesting, but for positioning and parts of the yield curve that might be undervalued or certain sectors or states that are poised to perform well going into yearend," said Tim McGregor, a managing partner at Riverbend Capital Advisors.

Municipals are outperforming USTs to a large degree this month, with investment grade munis seeing positive 0.81% returns in November and 1.63% year-to-date. USTs are in the red at -0.40% in November with only 0.96% positive returns in 2024.

"This year, with the tax-exemption clearly threatened, primary calendars should (although, of course, might not) be larger, putting a $500 billion full-year supply total in range, with $451 billion already in the books through 46 weeks," said MMA's Matt Fabian.

Houston is set to price Tuesday $1 billion of United Airlines Terminal Improvement Projects AMT revenue bonds while the Public Finance Authority will bring $125 million of non-rated Million Air Three General Aviation Facilities Project revenue bonds.

As headline risk swirls around the Fed and the transition to the Trump administration, municipals have largely stayed in their own lane. November finds the municipal market "in far better technical shape, with an attractive backdrop through at least year-end," J.P. Morgan's Peter DeGroot said. 

This month is experiencing similar volatility as 2016 when generic yields traded higher by 50 to 70 basis points during November of that year, said Kim Olsan, a senior fixed income portfolio manager at NewSquare Capital.