Secondary bond market

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said cuts are likely this year but are not guaranteed. He added that the Fed is looking for more signs that inflation is moderating. "We are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for longer if appropriate."

"Yields are attractive, and there's going to be a lot of demand and there's not going to be a lot of bonds," said Scott Diamond, co-head of the municipal fixed income team at Goldman Sachs.

"The market seems to be coalescing around the view that these historically rich ratios can be sustained through February, but that the market technical becomes far less favorable in March and April," said Birch Creek Capital strategists in a report.

BofA expects muni yields to continue to move up and credit spreads to narrow "in a slow and gentle fashion" in February.

The inflows into muni mutual funds mark a reversal from 2022 and 2023.

LSEG Lipper reported Thursday that investors added $210.6 million to municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Wednesday — the third consecutive week — after inflows of $898 million the week prior.

As ridership remains low, investors are closely watching for new funding streams and credits like the MTA's planned congestion tax-backed bonds.

Despite fixed-income seeing losses this month, Jeff Lipton, managing director of credit research at Oppenheimer, believes "a performance sea change is nearing."

After the year-end rally, "2024 bond investors have been reluctant buyers, prices creeping lower perhaps until the data and the Fed's next steps are more clear," said Matt Fabian, partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

This week's heavy new-issue calendar of tax-exempt supply "could lead to a modest cheapening of ratios," said Vikram Rai, head of municipal markets strategy at Wells Fargo.