Primary bond market

Fitch Ratings has raised the Turnpike Authority's ratings to BBB-plus from BBB and assigned BBB-plus ratings to the Series 2024 A&B senior lien turnpike revenue bonds and Series 2024 subordinated TIFIA loan.

"This week's new issue calendar should be well received," said Anders S. Persson, Nuveen's chief investment officer for global fixed income, and Daniel J. Close, Nuveen's head of municipals.

This week's $9.4 billion calendar "should easily be absorbed as it is set to be the last full primary calendar of the year, given the Fed meeting the following week and then Christmas and New Year's holidays," Birch Creek Capital strategists said in a weekly report.

The City Colleges of Chicago is planning to issue $201 million in unlimited tax GO refunding bonds, bolstered by an upgrade and a new positive rating outlook.

Pennsylvania leads the new-issue calendar with $2.1 billion of GOs in four series via the competitive market while the New York City TFA will bring another $1.4 billion of exempts and taxables.

Triple-A yields have fallen up to 95 basis points on the month, supply is up 7.8% year-over-year for November and the month is posting positive returns, which has, in turn, led to well over 3.50% returns year-to-date.

The continued drop in yields has been "buoyed by a broad rate rally and intra-market fundamentals that simply have created more buyers than sellers," noted Kim Olsan, senior vice president of municipal bond trading at FHN Financial.

Delayed over the summer amid rising interest rates, Miami-Dade County is now set to come to market with its taxable revenue bond sale for PortMiami.

Illinois spreads tightened considerably after ratings upgrades earlier this year. The state saw up to 10 bidders on $875 million of taxable and tax-exempt GOs.

While the muni market faces some headwinds, such as rich relative yields, near-term returns "are likely to be favorable for munis," said Cooper Howard, a fixed-income strategist at Charles Schwab.

"The November muni rally continues as month-to-date returns are now at 4.68%, pushing us further into positive territory for the year as year-to-date returns now stand at 2.35%," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

Proceeds from the social bond issue will go to support high-performing public charter schools across the United States and promote educational equity.

"The market has had a solid tone to it recently even with the strong rally seen this month," Roberto Roffo, managing director and portfolio manager at SWBC Investment Management, said of the Nov. 10 rally where municipal yields in 10 years fell by as much as 40 basis points.

There had been speculation of layoffs in Citi's municipal division as several high-profile employees had been departing the firm over the last year, but sources said they have not heard of any muni layoffs.

The large drop in yields since the end of October can be reflected in sentiment that investors expect a potentially dovish Fed next year, and that a soft landing narrative gives them "permission to finally purchase the bonds they've been admiring," said MMA's Matt Fabian.

The rally in munis over the last three weeks has "pushed ratios to levels that we have not seen since the start of the year," said Jason Wong, vice president of municipals at AmeriVet Securities.

Tradeweb created a model that examines outstanding municipal securities, both tax-exempts and taxables, and it looks for similarities in bond features, such as maturities, call dates, use of proceeds and coupon structures.

BofA Global Research strategists said they believe peak muni yields in this Fed tightening cycle were attained in October 2023 and "the bull market for munis is underway." 

"Demand is firming up. Interest rates have moved off the recent highs. Intermediate muni yields are about 50 basis points off from those highs," said Stephen Shutz, head of tax-exempt fixed income and a portfolio manager at Brown Advisory.

"Everyone is reevaluating and taking a breather after the numbers [on Tuesday]," a New York trader said.