Primary bond market

Late-month volumes are "waning as it appears the year's tax-loss harvesting was accomplished leading up to the holiday period," said Kim Olsan, senior vice president of municipal bond trading at FHN Financial.

Munis' strong performance from November continued into December, said Miguel Laranjeiro, a portfolio manager at abrdn.

The year is ending on a strong note, said Joshua Perry, a partner, portfolio manager and municipal credit analyst at Brown Advisory.

LSEG Lipper reported Thursday that investors added $147 million to muni mutual funds for the week ending Wednesday after outflows of $514.5 million the week prior. High-yield saw some outflows, though.

The issuer is set to come to market with general revenue bonds the week of Jan. 21, according to its investor website.

The Investment Company Institute reported more outflows from municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Dec. 13, with investors pulling $588 million from the funds.

The county plans to sell $2.5 billion of tax-exempt sewer revenue warrants to refund the debt issued to finance its 2013 exit from Chapter 9 bankruptcy.

The Bloomberg Municipal Index has returned 1.90% so far in December and 5.96% year-to-date, while the High-Yield Index is up 2.75% this month and 8.94% in 2023. Taxable munis are returning 3.98% in December bringing year-to-date returns to 7.83%.

The Philadelphia-based financial advisory firm has used BVAL for several years, but once the full interpolated curve and the intraday hourly changes were released on the EMMA, PFM decided to use BVAL as its primary pricing curve.

With fears of further Fed hikes subsided, Birch Creek strategists said with "loads of cash still sitting on the sidelines, and expectations that cash will no longer earn 5%+, we believe the muni market will benefit in 2024 from a return of investors looking to allocate to the asset class."

Triple-A yields fell up to five basis points Friday while USTs were mixed. Munis still underperformed taxables on the week, but the setup for the asset class going into yearend is decidedly positive.

The $250 million of new money social bonds will finance public school construction projects, with another $190 million refunding debt issued to build schools.

Secondary trading showed clear strength across the yield curve Thursday with bellwether names trading up significantly from recent prints and original pricing levels. New-issues in the primary benefited with issuers repricing to lower yields and tight to triple-A curves.

Muni yields fell up to five basis points and dramatically underperformed USTs, as they are wont to do on FOMC days. Treasury yields fell as much as 29 basis points on the two-year and sent the 10-year down closer to the 4% threshold.

Issuers should "absolutely be issuing if possible; the end of year outlook is positive on the surface but substantial volatility lies just below and could arrest or interrupt what have been easier primary market conditions," said MMA's Matt Fabian.

The weakness came as the new-issue calendar grew to $5.9 billion with the addition of a $900 million refunding deal from the Illinois State Highway Toll Highway Authority slated for Thursday. Bond Buyer 30-day visible supply sits at $6.95 billion.

Nuveen's marquee fund has seen the worst performance among the largest high-yield funds so far this year.

The new-issue calendar comes in just over $3 billion, of which is $847 million of state personal income tax revenue bonds from the Empire State Development in three competitive sales.

LSEG Lipper reported Thursday that investors pulled $144.5 million from muni mutual funds for the week ending Wednesday after outflows of $58.9 million the week prior.

Municipal mutual fund losses continued last week as the Investment Company Institute Wednesday reported investors pulled $475 million from the funds in the week ending Nov. 29 after $97 million of outflows the previous week.