Primary bond market

New sales of tax-exempt bonds in California have been gobbled up by buyers looking to shield income from the state's high taxes and to lock in yields.

Municipal bond insurers wrapped $18.592 billion in the first half of 2024, a 19.5% increase from the $15.561 billion insured in the first half of 2023, according to LSEG data.

Barclays rate strategists believe the 10-year part of the Treasury curve has room to cheapen. "In that case, tax-exempts will likely not only follow, but underperform."

Municipal bond mutual funds saw inflows as investors added $528.7 million to funds after $674.1 million of inflows the week prior, according to LSEG Lipper. This marks seven straight weeks of inflows.

Underwriting spreads rose to $7.11 in the first half of 2024 from $3.70 in the first half of 2023.

The Investment Company Institute reported $839 million of inflows into municipal bond mutual funds for the week ending Aug. 7 after $442 million of outflows the week prior. Exchange-traded funds saw $680 million of inflows after $950 million of inflows the previous week.

"There's an important 'date certain' the market may overreact to, but by and large, [this] week is looking positive given a lighter new- issue calendar," said AllianceBernstein strategists.

Dallas Fort Worth International Airport received a S&P rating upgrade and a positive rating outlook from Moody's ahead of a $750 million bond sale next week.

"After a long-period of muni yields not being that attractive relative to corporates, that's starting to shift," Charles Schwab's Cooper Howard said.

Muni returns so far in August are in the black, with the Bloomberg Municipal Index at 0.53% this month and 1.04% year to date. High-yield continues to outperform with returns at 0.68% in August and 5.99% in 2024.

The past several trading sessions have seen "crazy volatility," said Jennifer Johnston, director of research of municipal bonds at Franklin Templeton.

Thursday's pricing of senior revenue bonds comes after Fitch Ratings upgraded the airport's subordinate debt.

Recent events have been a "roundtrip" for rates, starting with the sentiment shifting from slowing inflation to a softening labor market, said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer at 16Rock Asset Management.

When Wisconsin priced $253.755 million of GO refunding bonds on July 23, it was the state's second forward delivery deal in recent months.

The Omaha City Council approved placing a $333.4 million GO bond deal on the Nov. 5 ballot.

This week's new-issue calendar will be "outsized," said Anders S. Persson, Nuveen's chief investment officer for global fixed-income, and Daniel J. Close, Nuveen's head of municipals.

"Decelerating or slowing economic growth has sparked a classic flight-to-quality trade with short-term Treasuries being the prime beneficiary," said Gary Pzegeo, head of fixed-income at CIBC Private Wealth U.S.

Data shows the average bids per competitive sale is up noticeably over the past few quarters, Justin Marlowe said, rising to 8.5 bids in Q1 2024 from 6.1 bids in Q1 2022.

LIPA's prepares to go to market with new leadership as it prepares to decide on its next power supply management services provider.

All eyes now turn to the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting where the Fed is expected to cut rates, but market participants are mixed on whether it will be a 25- or 50-basis-point cut.