Primary bond market

The Indiana Financing Authority is the biggest entry on 2025's largest negotiated calendar with $1.5 billion of Indiana University Health system revenue bonds.

With higher yields and ratios, many participants say investors should be taking advantage of current levels.

Chicago goes to market next week with $517.95 million of taxable and tax-exempt general obligation bonds following a downward outlook revision from Fitch.

Supply has weighed on munis to some extent over the past few weeks, as week after week issuance tops $10 billion, said Jeremy Holtz, a portfolio manager at Income Research + Management.

Two Midwest schools in the municipal bond market this month illustrate the range of funding challenges facing higher education under the Trump administration.

Muni yields were bumped up to eight basis points, depending on the curve, on Tuesday, but for most of last week, U.S. rates sold off on the heels of passed legislation, said Barclays strategists Mikhail Foux and Grace Cen.

Issuers routinely refund 5% bonds in year 10, and the resulting savings can be significant. It is notable that although refunding is typically associated with declining interest rates, 5% bonds are refunded even if rates rise.

"We're seeing some of the additional instability and other things come into play," said Dan Genter, CEO of Genter Capital Management.

"Light demand" for Wednesday's 20-year Treasury bond auction "propelled yields to the nosebleeds and equities to the basement," said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

The "risk to the tax exemption appears to have dropped sharply as of last week ... taking with it the hypothetical risk of a supply surge ahead of any end-date for borrowers' exemption access," said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics.

"Munis are no longer moving on headlines; they're reacting to rates and supply," which is playing out again Monday after a choppy March and April, said James Pruskowski, chief investment officer at 16Rock Asset Management.

Municipals were cut up four basis points, depending on the curve, through noon.

Issuance for the week of May 19 is estimated at $11.667 billion.

A couple of "bond-friendly" economic reports released Thursday could encourage the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates in the near future, some analysts argued.

Strong enplanement growth, an expansive number of days of cash on hand and low costs outweigh credit concerns, analysts said.

While April was a challenging month for muni performance, this summer will be a more supportive environment, said Mark Paris, chief investment officer and head of municipals at Invesco.

The muni market is recovering from tariff turmoil, and is more resilient than the day-to-day volatility suggests, Jamie Doffermyre of Truist Securities said.

Even with Monday's U.S.-China tariff truce and Tuesday's inflation print, the market has felt better over the past several weeks, said Jamie Iselin, managing director and head of municipal fixed income at Neuberger Berman.

The $839.5 million Harris County Hospital District bond sale will tap $2.5 billion of voter-approved debt authorization for a $3.2 billion expansion project.

Munis yields followed UST yields higher Monday, rising one to four basis points, depending on the scale, but the asset class outperformed USTs.